Goldman’\u0131n tahmini do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve bir sonraki beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan Ocak ay\u0131na ertelendi\u011fi piyasa fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131nda zaten ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan yeniden yap\u0131lanmay\u0131 uzatacakt\u0131r. Hatzius’un arg\u00fcman\u0131 tek bir veri noktas\u0131na de\u011fil, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131na dayan\u0131yor; bu da bankaya, FOMC’nin g\u00fcvercin kanad\u0131n\u0131n 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmek i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir nedeni olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00fcven veriyor. Hazine tahvil e\u011frisindeki dikle\u015fme, faiz oranlar\u0131 masalar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha uygulanabilir bir sinyaldir; Goldman bunu tek bir etkenden ziyade, azalan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131, azalan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri ve mali kayg\u0131lar\u0131n bir kombinasyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131yor. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin %4’\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ise piyasan\u0131n Goldman’\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatland\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Goldman’\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomistinden bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7eren bir not, \u00f6zellikle FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve toplant\u0131dan \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanacak di\u011fer verilerle birlikte, pozisyonlar\u0131 genellikle marjinal olarak etkiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Goldman’\u0131n ba\u015f ekonomisti, verilerin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n hala \u00e7ok fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve Hazine tahvil e\u011frisinin bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131taca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6zet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Goldman Sachs ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan bir notta, Fed’in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal oldu\u011funu belirtti.
Hatzius, FOMC’nin 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl’deki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011finden \u015f\u00fcphe duymas\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri olarak perakende sat\u0131\u015flardaki durgunlu\u011fu, zay\u0131f istihdam rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyondaki yava\u015flamay\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.
Goldman’\u0131n temel tahminlerinin enflasyonda yeniden k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeden ziyade daha fazla iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini ve fonlama faiz oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok \u015fahin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.
CME FedWatch verileri, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,75-%4 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6sterirken, Temmuz ay\u0131 enflasyon verilerinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasa beklentileri bir sonraki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan Ocak ay\u0131na kayd\u0131.
Goldman Sachs, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131 ve mali kayg\u0131lar nedeniyle Hazine tahvil getirisi e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesini bekliyor; ancak iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri hala %4’\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyrediyor.
Bloomberg’in (eri\u015fim k\u0131s\u0131tlamal\u0131) haberine g\u00f6re, Goldman Sachs ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius, son enflasyon verilerinin gidi\u015fat\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa beklentilerinin daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok agresif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunarak, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv’in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal oldu\u011funu belirtti. Hatzius, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan bir notta, durgun perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, zay\u0131f istihdam rakamlar\u0131 ve azalan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi yetersiz ekonomik verinin, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi’nin 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphe uyand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hatzius, iki ay boyunca istihdam ve enflasyon verilerinde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131ktan sonra, komitenin g\u00fcvercin \u00fcyelerinden herhangi birinin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye y\u00f6nelmesinin zor oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Goldman’\u0131n temel tahminlerinin, y\u0131l ilerledik\u00e7e enflasyonda yeniden bir bozulmadan ziyade daha fazla iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirten Hatzius, bankan\u0131n fonlama oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok \u015fahin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yineledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Piyasa fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131 zaten bu y\u00f6nde hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. CoinDesk’in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, CME FedWatch verileri, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde %3,75-%4 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran, ge\u00e7en hafta beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen Temmuz enflasyon verilerinin piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bir sonraki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisini Ocak ay\u0131na erteledi; bu, bir \u00f6nceki hafta Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir hamlenin tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dikkat \u00e7ekici bir geri \u00e7ekilme anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Goldman ayr\u0131ca, ABD Hazine tahvil getirisi e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; banka bu durumu, azalan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131, azalan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri ve ABD mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin artan endi\u015felerin bir kombinasyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Fed politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklere en duyarl\u0131 olan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirileri %4’\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n Goldman’\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercinvari faiz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa vadeli enstr\u00fcmanlarda hen\u00fcz tam olarak yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Goldman’\u0131n tahmini do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30’a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve bir sonraki beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[27,26,182],"class_list":["post-10291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-goldman-sachs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}