<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\nJeopolitik riskin y\u00fckselmesi, ABD dolar\u0131na olan g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi ABD ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde enflasyon beklentilerini art\u0131r\u0131rsa, ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131nda da oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Petrol + Dolar + ABD tahvil faizleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fc, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden biri haline gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in \u0130ki Farkl\u0131 Senaryo<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\nAlt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir tarafta sava\u015f ve jeopolitik risk g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekliyor. Di\u011fer tarafta y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n faiz beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi, y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri \u00fczerinden alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle alt\u0131ndaki hareket yaln\u0131zca \u201csava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, alt\u0131n y\u00fckselir\u201d \u015feklinde okunmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
E\u011fer jeopolitik risk ile birlikte reel faiz beklentileri de y\u00fckselirse alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir. Ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesi ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde yeni zirveler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Kripto Piyasas\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Kritik E\u015fik<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\nBitcoin ve kripto piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ilk a\u015famada risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki bozulma negatif olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6zellikle k\u00fcresel hisse senetlerinde sert sat\u0131\u015f, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesi halinde Bitcoin \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak daha uzun vadede farkl\u0131 bir hik\u00e2ye ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
E\u011fer sava\u015f\u0131n ekonomik maliyeti b\u00fcy\u00fcr, bor\u00e7luluk ve para politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karsa Bitcoin’in \u201calternatif finansal varl\u0131k\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle kripto piyasas\u0131nda ilk tepki ile orta vadeli fiyatlama birbirinden farkl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>En Kritik Risk: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\nPiyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde izleyece\u011fi en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131k H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc burada ya\u015fanacak geli\u015fmeler \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel bir askeri gerilim olarak kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, deniz trafi\u011finin daha fazla aksamas\u0131 veya \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011faz \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde petrol piyasas\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha sert fiyatlamalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu noktada mesele art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki askeri m\u00fccadele olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar ve k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi problemine<\/strong> d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>K\u00f6rfez \u00dclkeleri \u0130\u00e7in Yeni G\u00fcvenlik Riski<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n geni\u015flemesi halinde Suudi Arabistan, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, Katar, Bahreyn ve Kuveyt gibi \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 da artabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u00f6lgede ABD askeri \u00fcslerinin bulunmas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n olas\u0131 misillemelerinde K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini do\u011frudan veya dolayl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde risk alan\u0131na sokuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6zellikle enerji tesislerinin veya ihracat altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131, piyasalardaki risk primini \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>\u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan Cephesi de \u0130zlenmeli<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u0130ran-ABD \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fka cephelere yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimali de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikleri veya vekil unsurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan hatt\u0131ndaki tansiyonu yeniden art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu durumda piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk yaln\u0131zca \u201cABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131\u201d olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar ve daha geni\u015f bir Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015f senaryosuna<\/strong> d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki G\u00fcnler \u0130\u00e7in \u00dc\u00e7 Ana Senaryo<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/span>1. Kontroll\u00fc Misilleme ve Yeniden M\u00fczakere<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nEn olumlu senaryo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Taraflar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar ve diplomatik kanallar yeniden devreye girer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu durumda petrol \u00fczerindeki sava\u015f primi azalabilir, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparlanabilir ve hisse senetleri ile kripto piyasalar\u0131nda rahatlama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>2. Uzayan ABD-\u0130ran \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nAna risk senaryosu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n devam etmesi ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00f6lge geneline yay\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha temkinli hareket etmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu senaryo k\u00fcresel piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201cy\u00fcksek volatilite\u201d d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>3. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve B\u00f6lgesel Sava\u015f Senaryosu<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nEn negatif senaryo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda deniz trafi\u011finin ciddi bi\u00e7imde kesintiye u\u011framas\u0131, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 veya K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi halinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha sert bir \u015fok ya\u015fanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu durumda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilirken enflasyon yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, klasik bir stagflasyon riski<\/strong> anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Sonu\u00e7: Piyasalar\u0131n As\u0131l Sorusu \u201cSald\u0131r\u0131 Oldu mu?\u201d De\u011fil<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\nABD’nin \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan ate\u015fkes ve diplomasi s\u00fcrecinin ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu yeniden g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bundan sonraki fiyatlamada piyasalar art\u0131k sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden \u00e7ok \u0130ran’\u0131n verece\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n boyutuna, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki tanker trafi\u011fine, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131na<\/strong> odaklanacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u015eimdilik en \u00f6nemli denklem \u015fu:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sava\u015f riski \u2192 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski \u2192 Petrol \u2192 Enflasyon \u2192 Faiz beklentileri \u2192 Dolar \u2192 K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nBu zincirin hangi y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yaln\u0131zca Ortado\u011fu piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, Wall Street’ten Avrupa borsalar\u0131na, alt\u0131ndan Bitcoin’e kadar k\u00fcresel finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FxKNews Perspektifi:<\/strong>
K\u0131sa vadede piyasalar i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki yeni s\u0131\u00e7rama. Orta vadede ise as\u0131l belirleyici unsur, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden diplomasiye mi d\u00f6nece\u011fi, yoksa H\u00fcrm\u00fcz merkezli daha geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015fa m\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Washington\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle yaln\u0131zca<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,1],"tags":[20,19,18],"class_list":["post-13857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-abd","tag-iran","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13857"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13857\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13859,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13857\/revisions\/13859"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}