Y\u0131l\u0131n en yo\u011fun merkez bankas\u0131 haftas\u0131: FOMC, BoE ve BoJ art arda karar a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki A\u011fustos CPI’da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ayl\u0131k bazda beklenen y\u00fczde 0,2 yerine y\u00fczde 0,3 geldi \u2014 bu tek veri, piyasadaki FOMC art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 70’ten y\u00fczde 90’a f\u0131rlatt\u0131. Fed forward guidance’tan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan her veri normalden a\u011f\u0131r fiyatlan\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 hafta BoE’de son oylamada 3 \u00fcye art\u0131\u015f istemi\u015fti (6-3), enflasyon y\u00fczde 2,9’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 \u2014 art\u0131\u015f riski canl\u0131. BoJ ise TBA durumda, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131larda 8-1 ve 6-3 gibi b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylarla hold vermi\u015fti. \u00dc\u00e7 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da ayn\u0131 anda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilme riskini ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83d\udcc5 **Ekonomik takvim<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pazartesi \u2013 14 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 Kanada T\u00dcFE, A\u011fustos 2026<\/strong> Sal\u0131 \u2013 15 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3 G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 \u00c7in Sanayi \u00dcretimi & Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar, A\u011fustos 2026<\/strong> \u00c7ar\u015famba \u2013 16 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 21:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 FOMC Faiz Karar\u0131 + SEP (Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar) + Dot Plot<\/strong> \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (Advance), A\u011fustos 2026<\/strong> \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 09:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE, A\u011fustos 2026<\/strong> Per\u015fembe \u2013 17 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 15:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 BoE Faiz Karar\u0131 + MPC Oylamas\u0131<\/strong> \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Philadelphia Fed \u0130malat Endeksi, Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong> Cuma \u2013 18 Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 Sabah \u2014 BoJ Faiz Karar\u0131 (11:30-12:30 JST aras\u0131, ~05:30-06:30 TS\u0130)<\/strong> \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 09:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 \u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, A\u011fustos<\/strong> \u26a1 Kripto & Piyasa Riskleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n FOMC (\u00c7ar\u015famba 21:00):<\/strong> Piyasa zaten y\u00fczde 90 olas\u0131l\u0131kla art\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ger\u00e7ek art\u0131\u015f “beklenen” senaryo \u2014 as\u0131l volatilite dot plot’ta. Yeni dot plot ek art\u0131\u015flara i\u015faret ederse dolar sert g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, kripto kald\u0131ra\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi h\u0131zlan\u0131r. Tek seferlik art\u0131\u015f + “bekle-g\u00f6r” sinyali verilirse piyasa zaten fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fundan “haberle sat” tepkisi (relief-driven k\u0131sa toparlanma) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n BoE (Per\u015fembe 15:00):<\/strong> S\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f \u2014 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama canl\u0131 bir ihtimal \u2014 k\u00fcresel “merkez bankalar\u0131 e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor” anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir, GBP ve dolar birlikte sertle\u015febilir, risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r. Hold + \u015fahin oylama (4-5 gibi daha dar bir marj) Kas\u0131m i\u00e7in art\u0131\u015f beklentisini canl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n BoJ (Cuma sabah\u0131):<\/strong> \u015eahin s\u00fcrpriz gelirse (art\u0131\u015f ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyal) yen sertle\u015fir, carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr \u2014 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Cuma likiditesinde BTC\/ETH i\u00e7in ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 fitil riski en y\u00fcksek an buras\u0131. Hold + temkinli dil ise mevcut carry trade ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine izin verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00dc\u00e7 merkez bankas\u0131 ayn\u0131 hafta:<\/strong> FOMC \u00c7ar\u015famba, BoE Per\u015fembe, BoJ Cuma \u2014 art arda \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn, \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 k\u0131tadan gelen \u015fahin risk. Her birinin mesaj\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ne (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma) \u00e7ekerse k\u00fcresel dolar\/faiz ortam\u0131 hafta boyunca k\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak sertle\u015fir; kripto i\u00e7in hafta genelinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 birikebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n \ud83d\udca1 Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> Dot plot, merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem faizlerin nerede olabilece\u011fine dair noktasal tahmin tablosudur. Forward guidance ise bankan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na dair verdi\u011fi y\u00f6nlendirmedir; bu y\u00f6nlendirme yoksa piyasa sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 verilerden \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcca Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Hafta, \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kararlar\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel faiz beklentilerini ayn\u0131 anda etkileyebilir. Beklenenden daha \u015fahin bir ton dolar ve tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken, hisse senetleri ve kripto gibi riskli varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Y\u0131l\u0131n en yo\u011fun merkez bankas\u0131 haftas\u0131: FOMC, BoE ve BoJ art arda karar a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki A\u011fustos CPI’da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-raporlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17593"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17593\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17653,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17593\/revisions\/17653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Piyasa ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,1 gerileme ama y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,0 art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. BoC i\u00e7in arka plan verisi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 \u0130ngiltere \u0130stihdam Verileri, Temmuz<\/strong>
\ud83c\udde9\ud83c\uddea G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 Almanya ZEW Anketi, Eyl\u00fcl<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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21:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong>
Fed resm\u00ee takviminden onayl\u0131 (14:00 ET karar, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl). Haftan\u0131n merkezi. A\u011fustos’un s\u0131cak \u00e7ekirdek CPI’s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa art\u0131k y\u00fczde 90 olas\u0131l\u0131kla art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor \u2014 bu, birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine kadar y\u00fczde 70’te duran bir rakam\u0131n sert yukar\u0131 revizyonu. Bu \u00e7eyreklik projeksiyon toplant\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fundan dot plot ve SEP e\u015f zamanl\u0131 geliyor; Warsh’\u0131n Haziran’da kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileriye y\u00f6nlendirmeyi bu toplant\u0131da geri getirip getirmeyece\u011fi kritik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chicago Fed’in \u00f6n tahmini oto hari\u00e7 y\u00fczde 0,5 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor (Temmuz’da y\u00fczde -0,3 idi). FOMC karar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme okumas\u0131n\u0131 Fed karar\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nce \u015fekillendirecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 Eurozone Sanayi \u00dcretimi, Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Resm\u00ee kaynaktan onayl\u0131: 12:00 UK saati (15:00 TS\u0130). Temmuz’da 6-3 oyla sabit tutulan faiz (y\u00fczde 3,75) i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye zaten art\u0131\u015f istemi\u015fti; enflasyon o zamandan bu yana y\u00fczde 2,9’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ki oyun daha art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne kaymas\u0131 durumu de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir \u2014 piyasa bu toplant\u0131y\u0131 “iki oy uzakl\u0131kta” bir art\u0131\u015f riski olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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~09:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Ba\u015fkan Ueda Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong>
\u0130ki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131 17-18 Eyl\u00fcl; sonu\u00e7 toplant\u0131 an\u0131na kadar belirsiz (TBA). \u00d6nceki toplant\u0131larda 8-1 ve 6-3 gibi b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylarla hold verilmi\u015fti \u2014 karar\u0131n ne zaman a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015fiddetine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015febiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u2014 Japonya T\u00dcFE, A\u011fustos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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