<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nKlasik faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, ekonominin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131r. Talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr, istihdam s\u0131k\u0131d\u0131r, merkez bankas\u0131 freni yava\u015f\u00e7a basar. Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde durum b\u00f6yle de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu kez enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iten \u015fey talep de\u011fil, arz taraf\u0131ndaki bir enerji \u015foku<\/strong>. Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n stratejik Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kapatmas\u0131yla Brent 110 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki yeni sald\u0131r\u0131larla fiyatlar y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. \u015eu an Brent 108, WTI ise 104 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ekonominin can damar\u0131 olan dizel, perakendede galon ba\u015f\u0131na 6 dolar\u0131 a\u015farak enflasyon endi\u015felerini b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn alevlendirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBurada merkez bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en ac\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z: Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 petrol \u00fcretmez.<\/strong> Bir boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 tamir etmez, bir tankeri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’den ge\u00e7irmez. Fed’in yapabilece\u011fi tek \u015fey, bu arz \u015fokunun fiyat beklentilerine yerle\u015fmesini engellemektir. Yani art\u0131r\u0131m, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in de\u011fil, enflasyon beklentisinin \u00e7\u0131padan kopmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek<\/strong> i\u00e7in yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131m, karar\u0131n piyasalara nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlaman\u0131n anahtar\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPiyasa bu fark\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda de\u011fil. \u00c7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 2022-2023 refleksiyle hareket ediyor: “Fed art\u0131r\u0131r, enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fer, sonra indirir.” Oysa bu kez art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkisi ise do\u011frudan olacak. Stagflasyon kelimesi kula\u011fa abart\u0131l\u0131 gelebilir; ama piyasan\u0131n kafas\u0131ndaki \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi “1970’ler tarz\u0131 petrol \u015foku” ifadesi iyi \u00f6zetliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Enstr\u00fcman Enstr\u00fcman G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Tahvil: As\u0131l hik\u00e2ye burada<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nBu d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek hik\u00e2yesi hisse senetlerinde de\u011fil, tahvilde. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi %5,04’e \u00e7\u0131karak Temmuz 2007’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri de Haziran 2007’den beri en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131. Yani piyasa, on dokuz y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi bir faiz d\u00fcnyas\u0131na ad\u0131m at\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kritik nokta \u015fu: Getirilerin y\u00fckselmesinin tek sebebi Fed beklentisi de\u011fil. Uzun vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131 iten unsurlar aras\u0131nda yapay zek\u00e2 \u015firketlerinin devasa tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 da var; bu ihra\u00e7lar birincil sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ve di\u011fer finansal kurumlar\u0131n sermaye tahsisini daralt\u0131yor. Buna artan kamu bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon primi eklendi\u011finde, ortaya Fed’in kontrol edemedi\u011fi bir uzun vade<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\nYar\u0131n izlenecek as\u0131l \u015fey rakam de\u011fil, e\u011frinin tepkisi.<\/strong> Fed art\u0131r\u0131r ve uzun vadeli getiriler geriler ise, piyasa “Fed enflasyona h\u00e2kim, kredibilite yerinde” demi\u015f olur; bu sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 senaryo. Bu haftaki bir hamle Fed’in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kredibilitesini onarabilir ve uzun vadeli getirilerdeki yukar\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletebilir. Ama art\u0131r\u0131ma ra\u011fmen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5’in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015f\u0131r, hatta y\u00fckselirse, mesaj \u00e7ok daha rahats\u0131z edici olur: Piyasa art\u0131k Fed’in faizini de\u011fil, ABD’nin risk primini fiyatl\u0131yordur.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTakip edilecek seviye: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta %5,00 e\u015fi\u011fi. Karar sonras\u0131 bu seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fma, t\u00fcm risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in zeminin kaymas\u0131 demek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Dolar: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ama “g\u00fcvenli” mi?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nY\u00fckselen getiriler ve art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti. Klasik teoriye g\u00f6re art\u0131r\u0131m + \u015fahin ton = g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde dolar\u0131n hik\u00e2yesi iki katmanl\u0131. K\u0131sa vadede faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Orta vadede ise dolar\u0131 belirleyecek olan, Fed’in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair alg\u0131<\/strong>. Beyaz Saray’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda al\u0131nan her karar, dolar rezervi tutan yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 ve kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan siyasi risk filtresinden ge\u00e7iriliyor. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc ile dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fil; bu ayr\u0131m \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha s\u0131k konu\u015fulacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Alt\u0131n: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kendisi de\u011fil, sebebi \u00f6nemli<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nAlt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.300 dolar civar\u0131nda, be\u015f haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Fed’in bu hafta faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta bu mant\u0131kl\u0131: Y\u00fckselen reel getiri, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in maliyet demektir. Ama tabloyu tersinden okumak gerekiyor. Alt\u0131n, on dokuz y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek tahvil getirilerine ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolara ra\u011fmen yaln\u0131zca be\u015f haftan\u0131n dibine<\/strong> gerileyebildi. Yani \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil, d\u00fczeltme ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBunun sebebi, alt\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde iki farkl\u0131 talebi ayn\u0131 anda bar\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131: klasik reel getiri denklemi ve kurumsal g\u00fcven primi. Birincisi alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor, ikincisi taban\u0131 tutuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, jeopolitik risk ve Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ikinci kanad\u0131 besliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Karar sonras\u0131 izlenecek ayr\u0131m net: Alt\u0131n, art\u0131r\u0131m + net \u015fahin mesaj sonras\u0131 4.200’e do\u011fru sark\u0131p oradan h\u0131zla toparlan\u0131yorsa, g\u00fcven primi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor demektir. Toparlanmadan sarkma devam ederse, piyasa ger\u00e7ekten “Fed kontrol\u00fc elinde tutuyor” diye okuyor demektir \u2014 ve bu, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in as\u0131l bearish senaryodur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Borsa: De\u011ferleme, faizle \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131yor<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nEndeksler karar \u00f6ncesinde savunmada. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq, petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve 2007 zirvelerini g\u00f6ren tahvil getirileriyle geriledi. 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde petrol, y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri ve yapay zek\u00e2 i\u015flemine dair yeniden canlanan sorular risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in zor bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Burada as\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k \u015furada: Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n borsa rallisi, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yapay zek\u00e2 temas\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 vaadine dayan\u0131yordu. Uzun vadeli nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 vaadi ise iskonto oran\u0131na en duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131k t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr<\/strong>. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4’ten %5’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00e2rdan \u00e7ok gelecekteki k\u00e2ra fiyatlanan hisseler matematiksel olarak en \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybeder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u00dcstelik yapay zek\u00e2 \u015firketlerinin tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli getirileri yukar\u0131 itmesi, kendi kendini besleyen bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc kuruyor: AI yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u2192 bor\u00e7lanma \u2192 getiri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u2192 AI hisselerinin de\u011ferlemesinde bask\u0131. Sekt\u00f6r rotasyonu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enerji ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k, uzun vadeli teknolojiye k\u0131yasla daha diren\u00e7li kalmaya aday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Petrol: Denklemin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fkeni<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nBu tablonun tek ger\u00e7ek ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fkeni petrol. Fed’in karar\u0131 petrol\u00fc etkilemiyor; petrol Fed’in karar\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6sterge, Orta Do\u011fu’daki son t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve kesintiye u\u011frayan enerji rotalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel arzdan ciddi hacim \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Boru hatt\u0131 kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz riskleri devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece enflasyon taban\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu \u015fu anlama geliyor: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk izlenecek g\u00f6sterge Fed de\u011fil, Brent.<\/strong> Brent 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak gerilerse, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ikinci bir art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisi h\u0131zla erir, tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015fer ve t\u00fcm risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 rahatlar. Brent 120’ye do\u011fru giderse, Fed’in tek art\u0131r\u0131mla yetinmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz ve bu yaz\u0131daki t\u00fcm dengeler yeniden kurulur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Kripto: \u0130ki \u015foku birden yiyen tek s\u0131n\u0131f<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\nKripto bu hafta hem makro hem reg\u00fclasyon cephesinden vuruldu. Bitcoin, tasar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirerek 75.850 dolara, son 24 saatte %4,2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya geriledi. Haziran dibi 68.858 ile Eyl\u00fcl zirvesi 82.281 aras\u0131ndaki baca\u011f\u0131n Fibonacci seviyeleri hik\u00e2yeyi net anlat\u0131yor: Bitcoin 79.113 seviyesinin alt\u0131na kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131rd\u0131 ve %50 d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6lgesi olan 75.569’un hemen \u00fczerini test ediyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 73.986’ya, daha derin bir tasfiyede ise %78,6 d\u00fczeltmesi olan 71.731’e kap\u0131 a\u00e7ar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pozisyonlanma da temkinli tarafta: Bitcoin’de put opsiyonlar\u0131 yeniden call’lardan bir miktar daha pahal\u0131 hale geldi ve ABD spot Bitcoin ETF’lerinden ge\u00e7en hafta 462,73 milyon dolarl\u0131k \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanarak \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k giri\u015f serisi sona erdi. Coinbase’de Bitcoin’in Binance’a k\u0131yasla iskontolu i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, ABD’li al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n kenarda bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak burada bir n\u00fcans var ve piyasa bunu hen\u00fcz sindirmedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>CLARITY’nin Reddi: Felaket mi, Erteleme mi?<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nMan\u015fet duygusal: “Kriptonun en b\u00fcy\u00fck yasal bahsi kaybedildi.” Sonu\u00e7lar ise daha katmanl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
K\u0131sa vadede ger\u00e7ek bir kay\u0131p var.<\/strong> SEC-CFTC yetki payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 yasayla de\u011fil, kurum yorumuyla belirlenmeye devam edecek. Bu da \u015fu demek: Bug\u00fcn bir kurumun verdi\u011fi emtia s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131, yar\u0131n ba\u015fka bir y\u00f6netim taraf\u0131ndan geri al\u0131nabilir. Kurumsal sermayenin arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fey y\u00fcksek getiri de\u011fil, geri al\u0131namaz hukuki zemin<\/strong>. Yasa bunu verecekti, vermedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\nEn sert darbeyi do\u011frudan ABD reg\u00fclasyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u015f modelleri ald\u0131; Circle, Bullish ve Coinbase gibi kripto ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisseler oylama sonras\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ama sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn B plan\u0131 haz\u0131r.<\/strong> Coinbase y\u00f6netimi, tasar\u0131 ge\u00e7mezse SEC ve CFTC \u00fczerinden bir yol g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini, iki kurumun kurumsal d\u00fczenleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6nde gelen isimleri bu haftay\u0131 iki rayl\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015f, oylama ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olsa bile SEC ve CFTC’nin d\u00fczenleme yay\u0131mlamaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\nYani kripto reg\u00fclasyonu \u00f6lmedi; yasama zemininden idari zemine kayd\u0131.<\/strong> Bu, h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ama y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen bir ge\u00e7i\u015f. Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k, ABD’li \u015firketleri mevcut SEC-CFTC yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131r ve \u00fcr\u00fcn lansmanlar\u0131n\u0131 rafa kald\u0131rmak yerine 2027-2028’e \u00f6teleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\nRiskli taraf ise siyasi takvim. Kongre’nin gelecek y\u0131l b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f parti kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131na girmesi beklendi\u011finden, yasama organ\u0131n\u0131n piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesine ne zaman geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi belirsiz; tasar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen destek\u00e7ilerinden biri, bu Kongre’de ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan f\u0131rsat\u0131n kapsaml\u0131 reform i\u00e7in bir sonraki ciddi \u015fans\u0131 y\u0131llarca \u00f6teleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pratik sonu\u00e7:<\/strong> S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma belirsizli\u011fi en y\u00fcksek olan varl\u0131klar (altcoinler, \u00f6zellikle hukuki stat\u00fcs\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 tokenler) bu karar\u0131n maliyetini en a\u011f\u0131r \u00f6deyecek. Bitcoin’in ise CLARITY ile ba\u011f\u0131 en zay\u0131f olan varl\u0131k oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlamak gerekiyor; Bitcoin’in bu haftaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 reg\u00fclasyondan de\u011fil, 5’e dayanan tahvil getirisinden ve 108 dolarl\u0131k Brent’ten<\/strong> geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Trump ile Piyasa Aras\u0131nda S\u0131k\u0131\u015fan Warsh<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u0130\u015fte as\u0131l hik\u00e2ye burada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump, ABD’nin ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi \u00fclkelerle ticareti kesmekle tehdit ederek Fed’den faiz indirimi talep etti ve \u0130rlanda’da gazetecilere, form\u00fcller ne derse desin ABD’nin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizini \u00f6demesi gerekti\u011fini yineledi. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance dahil \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6netim isimleri de Fed’i art\u0131r\u0131mdan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya ya da faiz indirmeye a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yor. Y\u00f6netimin ekonomi kanad\u0131ndan bir isim, olas\u0131 bir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 “dikkatsizlik” olarak nitelendirip FOMC \u00fcyelerini sert ifadelerle hedef ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Buradaki ironi rahats\u0131z edici \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck. Hi\u00e7bir ba\u015fkan Fed’i faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giden yol, do\u011frudan Trump’\u0131n kendi politikalar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7iyor. Tarifeler maliyet enflasyonu yarat\u0131yor. \u0130ran’daki sava\u015f petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itiyor. Her ikisi de fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor ve Fed’i s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya zorluyor. Ba\u015fkan, kendi istedi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engeli kendi eliyle in\u015fa etmi\u015f durumda.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u0130kinci ironi daha da derin. Trump, faiz indirimini bu kadar a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde talep ederek ve indirim konusunda hemfikir oldu\u011funu ima etti\u011fi bir ba\u015fkan atayarak, kendi se\u00e7ti\u011fi Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n kredibilitesini daha ilk g\u00fcnden zedeledi. Warsh b\u00f6ylece klasik bir tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Sadakat g\u00f6sterirse piyasada itibar\u0131n\u0131, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k g\u00f6sterirse Beyaz Saray’daki konumunu kaybediyor.<\/strong> Merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131 ya ba\u015fkan\u0131n \u00f6fkesini \u00fcstlenmek ya da piyasadaki g\u00fcvenilirliklerini azaltmak aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f, kazan\u0131lamaz bir durumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBu y\u00fczden bu art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n anlam\u0131 25 baz puan\u0131n \u00f6tesinde. Warsh art\u0131r\u0131rsa, bunu ekonomik gerek\u00e7eyle yapm\u0131\u015f olsa bile piyasa karar\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k testi<\/strong> olarak okuyacak. Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mesi gereken s\u0131nav, hangi parti iktidarda olursa olsun enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yava\u015flama riskini g\u00f6ze al\u0131p y\u00f6netime kar\u015f\u0131 durabilece\u011fini piyasalara kan\u0131tlamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Siyaset ve Ger\u00e7eklik: Fark\u0131 Kim \u00d6der?<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\nSon b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in en pratik soruya ay\u0131ral\u0131m: Siyasi s\u00f6ylem ile piyasa ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne olur?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cevap her seferinde ayn\u0131: Tahvil piyasas\u0131 hakemdir ve karar\u0131n\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iye sormaz.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nSiyaset “faiz d\u00fc\u015fmeli” diyebilir. Tahvil piyasas\u0131 ise enflasyon beklentisi, arz-talep dengesi ve kredibilite \u00fczerinden fiyatlar. Fed k\u0131sa vadeli faizi belirler; ama mortgage’\u0131, \u015firket bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131, t\u00fcketici kredisini ve nihayetinde hisse de\u011ferlemelerini belirleyen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiridir<\/strong> \u2014 ve onu Fed belirlemez, piyasa belirler. Bug\u00fcn 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2007’den beri en y\u00fcksek seviyede olmas\u0131, tam da bu ayr\u0131m\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAyn\u0131 mant\u0131k kripto taraf\u0131nda da ge\u00e7erli. Aylard\u0131r “CLARITY ge\u00e7erse altcoinler u\u00e7ar” anlat\u0131s\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. Ge\u00e7medi. Ama fiyatlar zaten aylard\u0131r bu ihtimalin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yordu; tahmin piyasalar\u0131nda 2026 ge\u00e7i\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s’taki yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden %31’e gerilemi\u015fti ve oylama g\u00fcn\u00fc bu oran %11’e kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yani piyasa siyasetten daha h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m net:<\/strong> Siyasi vaadi de\u011fil, siyasi vaadin fiyatlanma derecesini izleyin. Bir haber ancak beklentiden farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para kazand\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/span>Sonu\u00e7: Bundan Sonra Ne \u0130zlenecek?<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n16 Eyl\u00fcl’de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak rakam b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. S\u00fcrpriz, rakam\u0131n etraf\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 detayda sakl\u0131:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Nokta grafi\u011fi ve aral\u0131k sinyali.<\/strong> Bu tek seferlik bir sigorta art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 m\u0131, yoksa kampanyan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131? Vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az iki art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; Warsh bu beklentiyi onaylarsa risk varl\u0131klar\u0131nda ikinci dalga sat\u0131\u015f gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n2. Uzun vadeli getirinin tepkisi.<\/strong> Art\u0131r\u0131m sonras\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k geriliyorsa kredibilite kazan\u0131ld\u0131; %5 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015f\u0131yorsa piyasa Fed’i de\u011fil, ABD risk primini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. Beyaz Saray’\u0131n tepkisi.<\/strong> Karardan sonraki ilk 48 saatte gelecek siyasi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, dolar\u0131n ve alt\u0131n\u0131n orta vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in karardan daha belirleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\nKripto taraf\u0131nda ise odak noktas\u0131 art\u0131k Kongre de\u011fil, kurumlar<\/strong>. SEC ve CFTC’nin yay\u0131mlayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczenleme taslaklar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda altcoin fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olacak. Bu, yasan\u0131n sunaca\u011f\u0131 kadar sa\u011flam bir zemin de\u011fil; ama bo\u015fluk da de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBu ortamda en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak de\u011fil, kald\u0131ra\u00e7la y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak<\/strong>. \u0130ki binary olay\u0131n yirmi d\u00f6rt saate s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftada, pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tahminin do\u011frulu\u011fundan daha \u00f6nemli hale gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nBu i\u00e7erik yaln\u0131zca bilgilendirme ama\u00e7l\u0131d\u0131r, yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131maz.<\/em><\/p>\n\ud83d\udca1 Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> \u201c\u00c7\u0131pa\u201d burada beklentileri sabitleyen bir referans noktas\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r; yani enflasyonun veya faizlerin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyen g\u00fcven veren bir dayanak gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u201cFibonacci seviyeleri\u201d ise fiyat\u0131n ne kadar geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini ya da toparlanabilece\u011fini tahmin etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan teknik analiz oranlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\ud83d\udcca Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi, k\u0131sa vadede dolar ve tahvil getirilerini destekleyebilir; bu da alt\u0131n, hisse senetleri ve kripto gibi riskli varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. \u00d6te yandan, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek seyir s\u00fcrerse enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 canl\u0131 kal\u0131r ve tahvil piyasas\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 devam edebilir. Kripto taraf\u0131nda ise d\u00fczenleme belirsizli\u011fi ve s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar birlikte dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act Senato’da d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Fed 16 Eyl\u00fcl’de \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Kripto, alt\u0131n, tahvil, borsa ve petrol bu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[23,26,55],"class_list":["post-18706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-bitcoin","tag-fed","tag-warsh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18706"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18706\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18845,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18706\/revisions\/18845"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}