{"id":1892,"date":"2026-06-01T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892"},"modified":"2026-06-01T02:46:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T23:46:24","slug":"abd-borsasi-son-100-yilin-en-pahali-seviyesinde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892","title":{"rendered":"ABD Borsalar\u0131 Son 100 Y\u0131l\u0131n En Pahal\u0131 Seviyesinde"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rakamlar net konu\u015fuyor: ABD hisse senetleri, art\u0131k tarihsel olarak &#8220;en pahal\u0131&#8221; etiketini hak ediyor. Dot-com balonunu da, B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran \u00f6ncesi \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da geride b\u0131rakan bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ciddi bir soru i\u015fareti do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bloomberg verilerine g\u00f6re, birden fazla de\u011ferleme metri\u011finin ortalamas\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD hisse senetleri, tarihsel olarak yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fler \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Bu b\u00f6lge daha \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca 1929, 1965 ve 1999&#8217;da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-transparent ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor:pointer\">\u0130\u00e7indekiler<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892\/#Gostergeler_Ne_Diyor\" >G\u00f6stergeler Ne Diyor?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892\/#Tarihsel_Paraleller_Neden_Urkutucu\" >Tarihsel Paraleller Neden \u00dcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892\/#Peki_Ya_Balonun_Sinyalleri\" >Peki Ya Balonun Sinyalleri?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=1892\/#Sonuc\" >Sonu\u00e7<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Gostergeler_Ne_Diyor\"><\/span><strong>G\u00f6stergeler Ne Diyor?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shiller CAPE oran\u0131, 2025 sonunda 40&#8217;\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Tarihsel olarak CAPE bu seviyelere yaln\u0131zca iki kez ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131: 1929&#8217;da B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran&#8217;dan \u00f6nce ve 2000&#8217;de dot-com balonunun zirvesinde. Shiller&#8217;\u0131n modeline g\u00f6re mevcut CAPE seviyesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131lda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 civar\u0131nda getiri ima ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warren Buffett&#8217;\u0131n &#8220;muhtemelen tek ba\u015f\u0131na en iyi de\u011ferleme \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc&#8221; olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Piyasa De\u011feri\/GSY\u0130H oran\u0131 ise rekor k\u0131rmaya devam ediyor. GuruFocus verilerine g\u00f6re bu oran 31 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 237,8 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Ocak 2026&#8217;da y\u00fczde 230,3 ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n rekorunu k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olan g\u00f6sterge, dot-com balonundaki zirveyi de geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekirse bu oran 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 166 d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Tarihsel_Paraleller_Neden_Urkutucu\"><\/span><strong>Tarihsel Paraleller Neden \u00dcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD borsas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n tarihine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011ferlemelerin bu denli \u015fi\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nem say\u0131s\u0131 son derece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Her birinde ortak bir payda\u015f var: D\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan ciddi bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f geldi. 1929&#8217;da piyasalar \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc ve b\u00fcy\u00fck buhran tetiklendi; 2000&#8217;de dot-com balonunun patlamas\u0131yla S&amp;P 500 iki bu\u00e7uk y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 49 geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peki bu kez farkl\u0131 m\u0131? BlackRock ve Morgan Stanley gibi kurumlar, 2025&#8217;teki y\u00fckseli\u015fin de\u011ferleme geni\u015flemesinden de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kazan\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden beslendi\u011fini savunuyor. \u00d6te yandan Morgan Stanley, bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131na giren d\u00f6nemlerin tarihsel olarak her zaman pozitif getiri \u00fcretti\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Peki_Ya_Balonun_Sinyalleri\"><\/span><strong>Peki Ya Balonun Sinyalleri?<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capital Economics, balonun 2027&#8217;de patlayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Analistler \u00f6zellikle 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ivme kazanan bir rotasyona dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve de\u011fer hisseleri, b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde geride b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu hareket, dot-com balonunun patlamas\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 11 ay \u00f6nce de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sonuc\"><\/span><strong>Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De\u011ferlemeler tek ba\u015f\u0131na zamanlamay\u0131 belirleyemiyor. Benzer de\u011ferleme seviyelerinden \u00f6nceki \u00f6rneklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sonraki alt\u0131 aydaki getiriler son derece geni\u015f bir yelpazede da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor; y\u00fczde 30 y\u00fckseli\u015f de, y\u00fczde 30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak uzun vadeli beklentiler i\u00e7in mesaj a\u00e7\u0131k: Tarih, bu kadar pahal\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktalar\u0131ndan elde edilen on y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Piyasa her zaman daha da pahal\u0131ya gidebilir \u2014 ama bir g\u00fcn fatura gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rakamlar net konu\u015fuyor: ABD hisse senetleri, art\u0131k tarihsel olarak &#8220;en pahal\u0131&#8221; etiketini hak ediyor. Dot-com balonunu da, B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran \u00f6ncesi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1897,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40,31,59],"class_list":["post-1892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-borsa","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp500"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}