{"id":24340,"date":"2026-09-29T19:24:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T16:24:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=24340"},"modified":"2026-09-29T19:24:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T16:24:40","slug":"tahvil-piyasasinda-dengeler-tersine-dondu-faiz-beklentileri-225-baz-puan-degisti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=24340","title":{"rendered":"Tahvil Piyasas\u0131nda Dengeler Tersine D\u00f6nd\u00fc: Faiz Beklentileri 225 Baz Puan De\u011fi\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda faiz beklentileri son aylarda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Piyasa art\u0131k <strong>Haziran 2027&#8217;ye kadar d\u00f6rt ayr\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> fiyatl\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen art\u0131\u015f da hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in toplam <strong>125 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> beklentisi olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oysa yaln\u0131zca dokuz ay \u00f6nce piyasan\u0131n beklentisi tamamen farkl\u0131yd\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Haziran 2027&#8217;ye kadar <strong>en az 100 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00f6ylece faiz beklentilerinde yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7erisinde <strong>225 baz puanl\u0131k devasa bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi<\/strong> ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_88 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-transparent ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor:pointer\">\u0130\u00e7indekiler<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=24340\/#10_Yillik_Tahvil_Getirisindeki_Sert_Yukselis\" >10 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Tahvil Getirisindeki Sert Y\u00fckseli\u015f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=24340\/#Piyasa_Hangi_Senaryoyu_Fiyatliyor\" >Piyasa Hangi Senaryoyu Fiyatl\u0131yor?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=24340\/#Asil_Soru_Bu_Hareket_Ne_Kadar_Surdurulebilir\" >As\u0131l Soru: Bu Hareket Ne Kadar S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"10_Yillik_Tahvil_Getirisindeki_Sert_Yukselis\"><\/span>10 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Tahvil Getirisindeki Sert Y\u00fckseli\u015f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin en dikkat \u00e7ekici yans\u0131malar\u0131ndan biri ABD&#8217;nin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvilinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi son 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>70 baz puan y\u00fckseldi<\/strong>. Getirilerdeki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon ve para politikas\u0131 konusunda \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Buna ra\u011fmen Trump y\u00f6netiminden ve ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217;ndan tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki bu sert hareketi do\u011frudan hedef alan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131klama gelmemesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerinin Haziran 2002&#8217;den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte piyasadaki bask\u0131 giderek daha belirgin hale geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Piyasa_Hangi_Senaryoyu_Fiyatliyor\"><\/span>Piyasa Hangi Senaryoyu Fiyatl\u0131yor?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mevcut fiyatlamalar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca y\u00fcksek faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki hareket, <strong>%7&#8217;nin \u00fczerinde bir enflasyon ortam\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi<\/strong> ve Fed&#8217;in gerekirse tek seferde <strong>50 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na<\/strong> y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi kadar sert bir risk alg\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu durum, dokuz ay \u00f6nceki faiz indirimi beklentileriyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasadaki alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar radikal bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Asil_Soru_Bu_Hareket_Ne_Kadar_Surdurulebilir\"><\/span>As\u0131l Soru: Bu Hareket Ne Kadar S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Buradaki temel mesele yaln\u0131zca tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi de\u011fil. As\u0131l soru, piyasan\u0131n bu kadar agresif bir faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tahvil getirilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f; h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini, \u015firketlerin finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131, mortgage faizlerini ve genel olarak ekonomideki kredi maliyetlerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki bu fiyatlama, yaln\u0131zca Fed&#8217;in gelecekteki kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir beklenti de\u011fil. Ayn\u0131 zamanda <strong>ABD ekonomisinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki enflasyon, bor\u00e7lanma ve finansal ko\u015fullar riskinin yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sonu\u00e7 olarak piyasa, sadece birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7erisinde faiz indirimlerinin konu\u015fuldu\u011fu bir ortamdan, art arda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tamamen farkl\u0131 bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. <strong>225 baz puanl\u0131k bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, tahvil piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fimin boyutunu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #3b82f6;padding:14px 16px;border-radius:6px;color:#cbd5e1;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.6\">\ud83d\udca1 <strong style=\"color:#93c5fd\">Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> Baz puan, faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimleri g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr; 1 baz puan y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019e denk gelir. Yani 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, faizin 0,25 puan y\u00fckselmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p><p style=\"border-left:4px solid #eab308;padding:14px 16px;border-radius:6px;color:#cbd5e1;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.6\">\ud83d\udcca <strong style=\"color:#fde047\">Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Tahvil getirilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara i\u015faret eder ve hisse senetleri ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ve alt\u0131n gibi faiz duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda zay\u0131f seyre yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda faiz beklentileri son aylarda ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irdi. Piyasa art\u0131k Haziran 2027&#8217;ye kadar d\u00f6rt ayr\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24341,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[27,299],"class_list":["post-24340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-faiz","tag-tahvil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24340"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24343,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24340\/revisions\/24343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}