ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) Eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporunu 2 Ekim Cuma TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor ve veri, Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te Ekim sonundaki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 bin artmas\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131 ve ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,1 y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; Reuters anketi 100 bin civar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fczde 4,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken Goldman Sachs 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\u00fczde 4,1 i\u015fsizlik, Bank of America ise 60 binlik art\u0131\u015f ve bunun 50 bininin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rden gelmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Wells Fargo, \u00fccretlerin ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 3,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ederken Kalshi verileri istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 90 bini a\u015fma ihtimalini y\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\u015fma ihtimalini ise y\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. A\u011fustos\u2019ta tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artm\u0131\u015f, Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs, bir sonraki 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 Ekim yerine Aral\u0131k\u2019a erteledi\u011fini ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 yava\u015flarsa FOMC\u2019nin ek art\u0131\u015flara gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Banka bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, A\u011fustos PCE enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,4 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesine, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131na ve New York Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 John Williams\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvercin mesajlar\u0131na ba\u011flayarak d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00e7ekirdek PCE tahminini y\u00fczde 3,0 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Goldman\u2019\u0131n bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirilerinde per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc desteklerken ABD dolar\u0131ndan da bir miktar destek \u00e7ekti. Citi Research de piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar agresif art\u0131\u015flara Fed\u2019in ihtiya\u00e7 duymayabilece\u011fini, petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar civar\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ise enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini sorgulad\u0131; UBS ise tahvil piyasas\u0131nda fiyatlanan neredeyse d\u00f6rt ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fazla agresif oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019in yak\u0131t ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131 ve ABD asker\u00ee konu\u015fland\u0131rmalar\u0131yla yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskini canl\u0131 tutarken, uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri 2002 zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. \u0130stihdam raporunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi Ekim\u2019de yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini y\u00fckseltebilir; zay\u0131f bir tablo ise ara verme beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken ilk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin\u2019de y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udca1 Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, ekonomide tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki i\u015flerde ka\u00e7 yeni ki\u015finin \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir istihdam g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00c7ekirdek PCE ise g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan, enflasyonun temel e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en bir g\u00f6stergedir.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcca Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelecek bir istihdam ve \u00fccret verisi, Fed\u2019in daha temkinli davranaca\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip dolar ve tahvil faizlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir; hisse senetleri ve Bitcoin \u00fczerinde ise bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) Eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporunu 2 Ekim Cuma TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor ve veri, Fed\u2019in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"[{\"ts\":\"2026-10-01 20:01:11\",\"content\":\"\\nABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma Bakanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131\\u2019na ba\\u011fl\\u0131 \\u0130statistik B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 istihdam raporunu yar\\u0131n (2 Ekim Cuma) TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klayacak. Fed\\u2019in \\u00fc\\u00e7 y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n aran\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131na gitti\\u011fi bir ortamda gelen veri, Ekim sonundaki toplant\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\\u00f6sterge olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131k\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nPiyasa beklentisi ne y\\u00f6nde?\\n\\n\\n\\nKonsens\\u00fcs, tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdamda 90 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015fa i\\u015faret ediyor; \\u00f6nceki ay 162 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klanm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131. Tahmin aral\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 35 bin ile 180 bin aras\\u0131nda geni\\u015f bir yelpazeye yay\\u0131l\\u0131yor. \\u0130\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131n y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de sabit kalmas\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ise y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda y\\u00fczde 3,1 artmas\\u0131 bekleniyor. Baz\\u0131 anketler farkl\\u0131 tablo \\u00e7iziyor: Reuters anketine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 100 bin civar\\u0131nda, i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131 ise y\\u00fczde 4,2\\u2019ye y\\u00fckselebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nB\\u00fcy\\u00fck bankalar aras\\u0131nda belirgin bir g\\u00f6r\\u00fc\\u015f ayr\\u0131l\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 var. Goldman Sachs 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\\u00fczde 4,1 i\\u015fsizlik beklerken, Bank of America yaln\\u0131zca 60 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcyor; bunun 50 bininin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6rden gelmesi bekleniyor. Wells Fargo cephesinde ise ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00fccret b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesini y\\u00fczde 3,2\\u2019ye ta\\u015f\\u0131mas\\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, enflasyon taraf\\u0131nda Fed\\u2019in dikkatle izleyece\\u011fi kalem olacak.\\n\\n\\n\\nTahmin piyasalar\\u0131 ise Wall Street\\u2019ten daha iyimser. Kalshi verilerine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n 90 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali y\\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali ise y\\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatlan\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nA\\u011fustos s\\u00fcrprizi ve revizyon riski\\n\\n\\n\\nA\\u011fustos\\u2019ta tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artarak son be\\u015f ay\\u0131n en g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc performans\\u0131n\\u0131 g\\u00f6sterdi; Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\\u015fti. Bu nedenle yar\\u0131nki raporda yaln\\u0131zca man\\u015fet rakam de\\u011fil, geriye d\\u00f6n\\u00fck d\\u00fczeltmeler de belirleyici olacak. \\u00d6nceki raporda Haziran ve Temmuz verilerinde yap\\u0131lan b\\u00fcy\\u00fck de\\u011fi\\u015fiklikler, revizyonlar\\u0131 bu ay da kritik hale getiriyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nVolatilite kayna\\u011f\\u0131 olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131kan kalem ise kamu sekt\\u00f6r\\u00fc. Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de devlet e\\u011fitim istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131n mevsimsel etkisi genellikle b\\u00fcy\\u00fck oluyor ve bu kalem son iki ayda sert dalgalanmalar g\\u00f6sterdi; bu da raporun ola\\u011fand\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 oynak gelebilece\\u011fine i\\u015faret ediyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nG\\u00f6\\u00e7 politikas\\u0131 \\u201cba\\u015fa ba\\u015f\\u201d \\u00e7\\u0131tay\\u0131 d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcrd\\u00fc\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc piyasas\\u0131n\\u0131n yorumlanmas\\u0131nda yap\\u0131sal bir de\\u011fi\\u015fim s\\u00f6z konusu. Trump y\\u00f6netiminin g\\u00f6\\u00e7 k\\u0131s\\u0131tlamalar\\u0131 i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc havuzunu daraltm\\u0131\\u015f durumda; ekonomistler i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131 sabit tutmak i\\u00e7in gereken ayl\\u0131k istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131 s\\u0131f\\u0131r ile 50 bin aras\\u0131nda hesapl\\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 60-90 bin band\\u0131ndaki bir verinin bile i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc piyasas\\u0131nda s\\u0131k\\u0131l\\u0131\\u011fa i\\u015faret edebilece\\u011fi anlam\\u0131na geliyor. Yani ge\\u00e7mi\\u015f y\\u0131llara g\\u00f6re \\u201czay\\u0131f\\u201d g\\u00f6r\\u00fcnen bir rakam, Fed a\\u00e7\\u0131s\\u0131ndan h\\u00e2l\\u00e2 yeterince g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc say\\u0131labilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nADP \\u00f6nc\\u00fc sinyali olumlu verdi\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcn\\u00fc a\\u00e7\\u0131klanan \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r verisi beklentilerin \\u00fczerinde geldi. ADP raporuna g\\u00f6re \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam\\u0131 Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de 90 bin artarken, A\\u011fustos verisi a\\u015fa\\u011f\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc revizyonla 36 bine \\u00e7ekildi; Reuters anketinde beklenti 70 bin seviyesindeydi. Art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n b\\u00fcy\\u00fck k\\u0131sm\\u0131 55 bin ki\\u015fiyle e\\u011fitim ve sa\\u011fl\\u0131k hizmetlerinden gelirken, finans sekt\\u00f6r\\u00fc 16 bin, profesyonel ve i\\u015f hizmetleri ise 11 bin ki\\u015filik kay\\u0131p ya\\u015fad\\u0131. \\u00dccret taraf\\u0131nda baz maa\\u015flar y\\u0131ll\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3,2, br\\u00fct \\u00fccretler y\\u00fczde 4,7 artt\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nAncak ADP\\u2019nin resmi veriyle uyumu s\\u0131n\\u0131rl\\u0131. Reuters, ADP\\u2019nin BLS\\u2019nin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam tahmini i\\u00e7in zay\\u0131f bir g\\u00f6sterge oldu\\u011funu hat\\u0131rlat\\u0131yor; BLS\\u2019nin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131 85 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klamas\\u0131 bekleniyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nFed ba\\u011flam\\u0131: S\\u0131k\\u0131la\\u015ft\\u0131rma d\\u00f6ng\\u00fcs\\u00fc yeniden ba\\u015flad\\u0131\\n\\n\\n\\nVerinin \\u00f6nemini art\\u0131ran as\\u0131l unsur para politikas\\u0131 zemini. Fed, Eyl\\u00fcl toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda oy birli\\u011fiyle politika faizini 25 baz puan art\\u0131rarak y\\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131na \\u00e7ekti. Medyan projeksiyon, 2026\\u2019y\\u0131 y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de kapatacak ilave bir 25 baz puanl\\u0131k art\\u0131\\u015fa i\\u015faret ediyor. Karar\\u0131n arka plan\\u0131nda kal\\u0131c\\u0131 enflasyon var: \\u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu 2026\\u2019n\\u0131n her ay\\u0131nda y\\u00fczde 3\\u2019\\u00fcn \\u00fczerinde seyretti. Ayr\\u0131ca ABD-\\u0130ran \\u00e7at\\u0131\\u015fmas\\u0131yla ba\\u011flant\\u0131l\\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\\u0131ndaki s\\u0131\\u00e7rama, k\\u0131sa vadeli fiyat bask\\u0131lar\\u0131n\\u0131 art\\u0131rd\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nBir sonraki ad\\u0131m\\u0131n zamanlamas\\u0131 ise hen\\u00fcz netle\\u015fmi\\u015f de\\u011fil. Ekim toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimali \\u015fu an y\\u00fczde 50 seviyesinde fiyatlan\\u0131yor. Bu denge, yar\\u0131nki verinin Ekim karar\\u0131n\\u0131 do\\u011frudan \\u015fekillendirebilece\\u011fini g\\u00f6steriyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nSenaryolar ve olas\\u0131 piyasa tepkisi\\n\\n\\n\\nG\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc veri senaryosu (100 bin \\u00fczeri, i\\u015fsizlik y\\u00fczde 4,1 veya alt\\u0131, \\u00fccretlerde ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 ve \\u00fcst\\u00fc): Ekim\\u2019de faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimali belirgin \\u015fekilde y\\u00fckselir. K\\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizleri ve dolar endeksi yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc tepki verebilir. Alt\\u0131n \\u00fczerinde bask\\u0131 olu\\u015furken, hisse senetlerinde ve kripto paralarda risk i\\u015ftah\\u0131 zay\\u0131flayabilir. Bitcoin a\\u00e7\\u0131s\\u0131ndan bu senaryo, s\\u0131k\\u0131la\\u015fan finansal ko\\u015fullar nedeniyle en olumsuz tablo olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131k\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nBeklentiye paralel senaryo (80-100 bin band\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik sabit): Piyasa i\\u00e7in en \\u201cn\\u00f6tr\\u201d tablo olur. Ekim karar\\u0131 belirsizli\\u011fini korur ve odak Ekim ortas\\u0131ndaki enflasyon verilerine kayar. Fiyatlamada sert bir de\\u011fi\\u015fim beklenmez; ancak revizyonlar ve \\u00fccret verisi y\\u00f6n\\u00fc belirleyebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nZay\\u0131f veri senaryosu (60 bin alt\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik y\\u00fczde 4,2 ve \\u00fczeri): Ekim\\u2019de ara verme ihtimali g\\u00fc\\u00e7 kazan\\u0131r, dolar ve tahvil faizleri geri \\u00e7ekilebilir. Alt\\u0131n ve kripto paralar bu tablodan ilk etapta destek bulabilir. Ancak g\\u00f6\\u00e7 kaynakl\\u0131 d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck ba\\u015fa ba\\u015f seviyesi nedeniyle, Fed\\u2019in zay\\u0131f bir veriyi tek ba\\u015f\\u0131na \\u201cgev\\u015feme sinyali\\u201d olarak okumas\\u0131 beklenmemeli.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130zlenecek kalemler\\n\\n\\n\\nMan\\u015fet istihdam rakam\\u0131n\\u0131n yan\\u0131 s\\u0131ra Haziran-Temmuz-A\\u011fustos revizyonlar\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar (ayl\\u0131k ve y\\u0131ll\\u0131k), i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fcne kat\\u0131l\\u0131m oran\\u0131 ve kamu e\\u011fitim istihdam\\u0131 raporun y\\u00f6n\\u00fcn\\u00fc belirleyecek ana ba\\u015fl\\u0131klar olacak. \\u00dccret verisinin beklentiyi a\\u015fmas\\u0131, man\\u015fet rakam zay\\u0131f gelse bile piyasada \\u015fahin bir okuma yaratabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nVeri, TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klanacak ve ilk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\\u0131n ve Bitcoin\\u2019de y\\u00fcksek oynakl\\u0131k beklenmesi gerekiyor. Kald\\u0131ra\\u00e7l\\u0131 pozisyonlar i\\u00e7in a\\u00e7\\u0131klama an\\u0131nda spread geni\\u015flemeleri ve ani fitiller g\\u00f6z \\u00f6n\\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nBu i\\u00e7erik yat\\u0131r\\u0131m tavsiyesi de\\u011fildir.\\n\"},{\"ts\":\"2026-10-01 20:01:22\",\"content\":\"\\nABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma Bakanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131\\u2019na ba\\u011fl\\u0131 \\u0130statistik B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 istihdam raporunu yar\\u0131n (2 Ekim Cuma) TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klayacak. Fed\\u2019in \\u00fc\\u00e7 y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n aran\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131na gitti\\u011fi bir ortamda gelen veri, Ekim sonundaki toplant\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\\u00f6sterge olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131k\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nPiyasa beklentisi ne y\\u00f6nde?\\n\\n\\n\\nKonsens\\u00fcs, tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdamda 90 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015fa i\\u015faret ediyor; \\u00f6nceki ay 162 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klanm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131. Tahmin aral\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 35 bin ile 180 bin aras\\u0131nda geni\\u015f bir yelpazeye yay\\u0131l\\u0131yor. \\u0130\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131n y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de sabit kalmas\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ise y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda y\\u00fczde 3,1 artmas\\u0131 bekleniyor. Baz\\u0131 anketler farkl\\u0131 tablo \\u00e7iziyor: Reuters anketine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 100 bin civar\\u0131nda, i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131 ise y\\u00fczde 4,2\\u2019ye y\\u00fckselebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nB\\u00fcy\\u00fck bankalar aras\\u0131nda belirgin bir g\\u00f6r\\u00fc\\u015f ayr\\u0131l\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 var. Goldman Sachs 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\\u00fczde 4,1 i\\u015fsizlik beklerken, Bank of America yaln\\u0131zca 60 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcyor; bunun 50 bininin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6rden gelmesi bekleniyor. Wells Fargo cephesinde ise ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00fccret b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesini y\\u00fczde 3,2\\u2019ye ta\\u015f\\u0131mas\\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, enflasyon taraf\\u0131nda Fed\\u2019in dikkatle izleyece\\u011fi kalem olacak.\\n\\n\\n\\nTahmin piyasalar\\u0131 ise Wall Street\\u2019ten daha iyimser. Kalshi verilerine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n 90 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali y\\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali ise y\\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatlan\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nA\\u011fustos s\\u00fcrprizi ve revizyon riski\\n\\n\\n\\nA\\u011fustos\\u2019ta tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artarak son be\\u015f ay\\u0131n en g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc performans\\u0131n\\u0131 g\\u00f6sterdi; Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\\u015fti. Bu nedenle yar\\u0131nki raporda yaln\\u0131zca man\\u015fet rakam de\\u011fil, geriye d\\u00f6n\\u00fck d\\u00fczeltmeler de belirleyici olacak. \\u00d6nceki raporda Haziran ve Temmuz verilerinde yap\\u0131lan b\\u00fcy\\u00fck de\\u011fi\\u015fiklikler, revizyonlar\\u0131 bu ay da kritik hale getiriyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nVolatilite kayna\\u011f\\u0131 olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131kan kalem ise kamu sekt\\u00f6r\\u00fc. Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de devlet e\\u011fitim istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131n mevsimsel etkisi genellikle b\\u00fcy\\u00fck oluyor ve bu kalem son iki ayda sert dalgalanmalar g\\u00f6sterdi; bu da raporun ola\\u011fand\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 oynak gelebilece\\u011fine i\\u015faret ediyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nG\\u00f6\\u00e7 politikas\\u0131 \\u201cba\\u015fa ba\\u015f\\u201d \\u00e7\\u0131tay\\u0131 d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcrd\\u00fc\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc piyasas\\u0131n\\u0131n yorumlanmas\\u0131nda yap\\u0131sal bir de\\u011fi\\u015fim s\\u00f6z konusu. Trump y\\u00f6netiminin g\\u00f6\\u00e7 k\\u0131s\\u0131tlamalar\\u0131 i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc havuzunu daraltm\\u0131\\u015f durumda; ekonomistler i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131 sabit tutmak i\\u00e7in gereken ayl\\u0131k istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131 s\\u0131f\\u0131r ile 50 bin aras\\u0131nda hesapl\\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 60-90 bin band\\u0131ndaki bir verinin bile i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc piyasas\\u0131nda s\\u0131k\\u0131l\\u0131\\u011fa i\\u015faret edebilece\\u011fi anlam\\u0131na geliyor. Yani ge\\u00e7mi\\u015f y\\u0131llara g\\u00f6re \\u201czay\\u0131f\\u201d g\\u00f6r\\u00fcnen bir rakam, Fed a\\u00e7\\u0131s\\u0131ndan h\\u00e2l\\u00e2 yeterince g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc say\\u0131labilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nADP \\u00f6nc\\u00fc sinyali olumlu verdi\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcn\\u00fc a\\u00e7\\u0131klanan \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r verisi beklentilerin \\u00fczerinde geldi. ADP raporuna g\\u00f6re \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam\\u0131 Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de 90 bin artarken, A\\u011fustos verisi a\\u015fa\\u011f\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc revizyonla 36 bine \\u00e7ekildi; Reuters anketinde beklenti 70 bin seviyesindeydi. Art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n b\\u00fcy\\u00fck k\\u0131sm\\u0131 55 bin ki\\u015fiyle e\\u011fitim ve sa\\u011fl\\u0131k hizmetlerinden gelirken, finans sekt\\u00f6r\\u00fc 16 bin, profesyonel ve i\\u015f hizmetleri ise 11 bin ki\\u015filik kay\\u0131p ya\\u015fad\\u0131. \\u00dccret taraf\\u0131nda baz maa\\u015flar y\\u0131ll\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3,2, br\\u00fct \\u00fccretler y\\u00fczde 4,7 artt\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nAncak ADP\\u2019nin resmi veriyle uyumu s\\u0131n\\u0131rl\\u0131. Reuters, ADP\\u2019nin BLS\\u2019nin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam tahmini i\\u00e7in zay\\u0131f bir g\\u00f6sterge oldu\\u011funu hat\\u0131rlat\\u0131yor; BLS\\u2019nin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131 85 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klamas\\u0131 bekleniyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nFed ba\\u011flam\\u0131: S\\u0131k\\u0131la\\u015ft\\u0131rma d\\u00f6ng\\u00fcs\\u00fc yeniden ba\\u015flad\\u0131\\n\\n\\n\\nVerinin \\u00f6nemini art\\u0131ran as\\u0131l unsur para politikas\\u0131 zemini. Fed, Eyl\\u00fcl toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda oy birli\\u011fiyle politika faizini 25 baz puan art\\u0131rarak y\\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131na \\u00e7ekti. Medyan projeksiyon, 2026\\u2019y\\u0131 y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de kapatacak ilave bir 25 baz puanl\\u0131k art\\u0131\\u015fa i\\u015faret ediyor. Karar\\u0131n arka plan\\u0131nda kal\\u0131c\\u0131 enflasyon var: \\u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu 2026\\u2019n\\u0131n her ay\\u0131nda y\\u00fczde 3\\u2019\\u00fcn \\u00fczerinde seyretti. Ayr\\u0131ca ABD-\\u0130ran \\u00e7at\\u0131\\u015fmas\\u0131yla ba\\u011flant\\u0131l\\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\\u0131ndaki s\\u0131\\u00e7rama, k\\u0131sa vadeli fiyat bask\\u0131lar\\u0131n\\u0131 art\\u0131rd\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nBir sonraki ad\\u0131m\\u0131n zamanlamas\\u0131 ise hen\\u00fcz netle\\u015fmi\\u015f de\\u011fil. Ekim toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimali \\u015fu an y\\u00fczde 50 seviyesinde fiyatlan\\u0131yor. Bu denge, yar\\u0131nki verinin Ekim karar\\u0131n\\u0131 do\\u011frudan \\u015fekillendirebilece\\u011fini g\\u00f6steriyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nSenaryolar ve olas\\u0131 piyasa tepkisi\\n\\n\\n\\nG\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc veri senaryosu (100 bin \\u00fczeri, i\\u015fsizlik y\\u00fczde 4,1 veya alt\\u0131, \\u00fccretlerde ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 ve \\u00fcst\\u00fc): Ekim\\u2019de faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimali belirgin \\u015fekilde y\\u00fckselir. K\\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizleri ve dolar endeksi yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc tepki verebilir. Alt\\u0131n \\u00fczerinde bask\\u0131 olu\\u015furken, hisse senetlerinde ve kripto paralarda risk i\\u015ftah\\u0131 zay\\u0131flayabilir. Bitcoin a\\u00e7\\u0131s\\u0131ndan bu senaryo, s\\u0131k\\u0131la\\u015fan finansal ko\\u015fullar nedeniyle en olumsuz tablo olarak \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131k\\u0131yor.\\n\\n\\n\\nBeklentiye paralel senaryo (80-100 bin band\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik sabit): Piyasa i\\u00e7in en \\u201cn\\u00f6tr\\u201d tablo olur. Ekim karar\\u0131 belirsizli\\u011fini korur ve odak Ekim ortas\\u0131ndaki enflasyon verilerine kayar. Fiyatlamada sert bir de\\u011fi\\u015fim beklenmez; ancak revizyonlar ve \\u00fccret verisi y\\u00f6n\\u00fc belirleyebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nZay\\u0131f veri senaryosu (60 bin alt\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik y\\u00fczde 4,2 ve \\u00fczeri): Ekim\\u2019de ara verme ihtimali g\\u00fc\\u00e7 kazan\\u0131r, dolar ve tahvil faizleri geri \\u00e7ekilebilir. Alt\\u0131n ve kripto paralar bu tablodan ilk etapta destek bulabilir. Ancak g\\u00f6\\u00e7 kaynakl\\u0131 d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck ba\\u015fa ba\\u015f seviyesi nedeniyle, Fed\\u2019in zay\\u0131f bir veriyi tek ba\\u015f\\u0131na \\u201cgev\\u015feme sinyali\\u201d olarak okumas\\u0131 beklenmemeli.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130zlenecek kalemler\\n\\n\\n\\nMan\\u015fet istihdam rakam\\u0131n\\u0131n yan\\u0131 s\\u0131ra Haziran-Temmuz-A\\u011fustos revizyonlar\\u0131, i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar (ayl\\u0131k ve y\\u0131ll\\u0131k), i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fcne kat\\u0131l\\u0131m oran\\u0131 ve kamu e\\u011fitim istihdam\\u0131 raporun y\\u00f6n\\u00fcn\\u00fc belirleyecek ana ba\\u015fl\\u0131klar olacak. \\u00dccret verisinin beklentiyi a\\u015fmas\\u0131, man\\u015fet rakam zay\\u0131f gelse bile piyasada \\u015fahin bir okuma yaratabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nVeri, TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klanacak ve ilk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\\u0131n ve Bitcoin\\u2019de y\\u00fcksek oynakl\\u0131k beklenmesi gerekiyor. Kald\\u0131ra\\u00e7l\\u0131 pozisyonlar i\\u00e7in a\\u00e7\\u0131klama an\\u0131nda spread geni\\u015flemeleri ve ani fitiller g\\u00f6z \\u00f6n\\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nBu i\\u00e7erik yat\\u0131r\\u0131m tavsiyesi de\\u011fildir.\\n\"},{\"ts\":\"2026-10-01 23:31:24\",\"content\":\"ABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma Bakanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131\\u2019na ba\\u011fl\\u0131 \\u0130statistik B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 istihdam raporunu yar\\u0131n, 2 Ekim Cuma TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klayacak. Fed\\u2019in \\u00fc\\u00e7 y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n aran\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131na gitti\\u011fi bir ortamda gelecek veri, Ekim sonundaki toplant\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\\u00f6sterge olarak g\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor.\\nPiyasa beklentisi tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdamda 90 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f y\\u00f6n\\u00fcnde; \\u00f6nceki ay veri 162 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klanm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131. \\u0130\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131n y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de sabit kalmas\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ise y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda y\\u00fczde 3,1 artmas\\u0131 bekleniyor; Reuters anketinde art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n 100 bin civar\\u0131nda, i\\u015fsizli\\u011fin ise y\\u00fczde 4,2\\u2019ye \\u00e7\\u0131kabilece\\u011fi \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor.\\nGoldman Sachs 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\\u00fczde 4,1 i\\u015fsizlik beklerken, Bank of America 60 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcyor ve bunun 50 bininin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6rden gelmesini bekliyor. Wells Fargo ise ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00fccret b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesini y\\u00fczde 3,2\\u2019ye ta\\u015f\\u0131yaca\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131 tahmin ediyor.\\nKalshi verilerine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n 90 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali y\\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali ise y\\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatlan\\u0131yor. A\\u011fustos\\u2019ta tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artm\\u0131\\u015f, Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\\u015fti; bu y\\u00fczden bu raporda revizyonlar da yak\\u0131ndan izlenecek.\\nEyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de devlet e\\u011fitim istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131n mevsimsel etkisi ve son iki ayda sert dalgalanan kamu sekt\\u00f6r\\u00fc raporda ola\\u011fand\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 oynakl\\u0131k yaratabilir. Trump y\\u00f6netiminin g\\u00f6\\u00e7 k\\u0131s\\u0131tlamalar\\u0131 i\\u015fg\\u00fcc\\u00fc havuzunu daraltt\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 i\\u00e7in, i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131 sabit tutmak i\\u00e7in gereken ayl\\u0131k istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n s\\u0131f\\u0131r ile 50 bin aras\\u0131nda hesapland\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 belirtiliyor.\\n\\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcn\\u00fc a\\u00e7\\u0131klanan ADP verisi \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6r istihdam\\u0131n\\u0131n Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de 90 bin artt\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131, A\\u011fustos verisinin ise 36 bine revize edildi\\u011fini g\\u00f6sterdi; art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n 55 bin ki\\u015filik k\\u0131sm\\u0131 e\\u011fitim ve sa\\u011fl\\u0131k hizmetlerinden geldi. Fed ise Eyl\\u00fcl toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\\u0131rarak y\\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131na \\u00e7ekmi\\u015f, medyan projeksiyon 2026\\u2019y\\u0131 y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de kapatacak ilave bir 25 baz puanl\\u0131k art\\u0131\\u015fa i\\u015faret etmi\\u015fti.\\nVerinin g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc gelmesi halinde Ekim\\u2019de yeni bir faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131n ihtimali y\\u00fckselirken, zay\\u0131f bir tablo ara verme beklentisini g\\u00fc\\u00e7lendirebilir. \\u0130lk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\\u0131n ve Bitcoin\\u2019de y\\u00fcksek oynakl\\u0131k bekleniyor.\\n\"},{\"ts\":\"2026-10-02 03:31:35\",\"content\":\"ABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma Bakanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131\\u2019na ba\\u011fl\\u0131 \\u0130statistik B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 istihdam raporunu yar\\u0131n, 2 Ekim Cuma TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klayacak. Fed\\u2019in \\u00fc\\u00e7 y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n aran\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131na gitti\\u011fi bir ortamda gelecek veri, Ekim sonundaki toplant\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\\u00f6sterge olarak g\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor.\\nPiyasa, tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdamda 90 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f beklerken \\u00f6nceki ay veri 162 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klanm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131; i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131n y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de sabit kalmas\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ise y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda y\\u00fczde 3,1 artmas\\u0131 \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor. Reuters anketi art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n 100 bin civar\\u0131nda, i\\u015fsizli\\u011fin ise y\\u00fczde 4,2\\u2019ye \\u00e7\\u0131kabilece\\u011fini; Goldman Sachs ise 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\\u00fczde 4,1 i\\u015fsizlik bekledi\\u011fini, Bank of America\\u2019n\\u0131n 60 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f ve bunun 50 bininin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6rden gelmesini \\u00f6ng\\u00f6rd\\u00fc\\u011f\\u00fcn\\u00fc g\\u00f6steriyor.\\nWells Fargo, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00fccret b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesini y\\u00fczde 3,2\\u2019ye ta\\u015f\\u0131yaca\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Kalshi verilerine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n 90 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali y\\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali ise y\\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatlan\\u0131rken, A\\u011fustos\\u2019ta tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artm\\u0131\\u015f, Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\\u015fti.\\nGoldman Sachs, bir yandan Ekim yerine Aral\\u0131k\\u2019a i\\u015faret ederek bir sonraki 25 baz puanl\\u0131k Fed art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131 Aral\\u0131k\\u2019a erteledi\\u011fini ve fiyat bask\\u0131lar\\u0131n\\u0131n yava\\u015flamas\\u0131 halinde FOMC\\u2019nin ek art\\u0131\\u015flara gerek olmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131na karar verebilece\\u011fini s\\u00f6yledi. Banka bu de\\u011fi\\u015fikli\\u011fi, A\\u011fustos PCE enflasyonunun y\\u0131ll\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3,4 ile beklentilerin alt\\u0131nda gelmesine, \\u00e7ekirdek PCE\\u2019nin yakla\\u015f\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3 seviyesinde kalmas\\u0131na ve New York Fed Ba\\u015fkan\\u0131 John Williams\\u2019\\u0131n g\\u00fcvercin mesajlar\\u0131na ba\\u011flad\\u0131; ayr\\u0131ca d\\u00f6rd\\u00fcnc\\u00fc \\u00e7eyrek \\u00e7ekirdek PCE tahminini y\\u00fczde 3,0 olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klad\\u0131.\\nGoldman\\u2019\\u0131n bu d\\u00f6n\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc, 2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirilerinde per\\u015fembe g\\u00fcn\\u00fc bir y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n s\\u00fcrenin en b\\u00fcy\\u00fck g\\u00fcnl\\u00fck d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcn\\u00fc desteklerken, ABD dolar\\u0131ndan da bir miktar destek \\u00e7ekti. Ancak Brent petrol\\u00fcn \\u00c7in\\u2019in yak\\u0131t ihracat\\u0131n\\u0131 durdurmas\\u0131 ve ABD asker\\u00ee konu\\u015fland\\u0131rmalar\\u0131yla yeniden 100 dolar\\u0131n \\u00fczerine \\u00e7\\u0131kmas\\u0131, enerji kaynakl\\u0131 enflasyonun Ekim fiyatlamas\\u0131n\\u0131 h\\u0131zla canland\\u0131rabilece\\u011fi anlam\\u0131na geliyor.\\nUzun vadeli tahvil getirileri 2002 zirvelerine yak\\u0131n seyrederken, cuma g\\u00fcnk\\u00fc istihdam raporu Ekim hamlesi, Aral\\u0131k art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 ve Fed\\u2019in beklemede kalaca\\u011f\\u0131 senaryo aras\\u0131nda piyasadaki dengeyi belirleyebilir. Verinin g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc gelmesi halinde Ekim\\u2019de yeni bir faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131n ihtimali y\\u00fckselirken, zay\\u0131f bir tablo ara verme beklentisini g\\u00fc\\u00e7lendirebilir ve ilk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\\u0131n ve Bitcoin\\u2019de y\\u00fcksek oynakl\\u0131k bekleniyor.\\n\"},{\"ts\":\"2026-10-02 04:31:08\",\"content\":\"ABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma Bakanl\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131\\u2019na ba\\u011fl\\u0131 \\u0130statistik B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 istihdam raporunu yar\\u0131n, 2 Ekim Cuma TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klayacak. Fed\\u2019in \\u00fc\\u00e7 y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n aran\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan yeniden faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131na gitti\\u011fi bir ortamda gelecek veri, Ekim sonundaki toplant\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi en kritik makro g\\u00f6sterge olarak g\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor.\\nPiyasa, tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdamda 90 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f beklerken \\u00f6nceki ay veri 162 bin olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klanm\\u0131\\u015ft\\u0131; i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131n\\u0131n y\\u00fczde 4,1\\u2019de sabit kalmas\\u0131, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ise y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda y\\u00fczde 3,1 artmas\\u0131 \\u00f6ng\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcyor. Reuters anketi art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n 100 bin civar\\u0131nda, i\\u015fsizli\\u011fin ise y\\u00fczde 4,2\\u2019ye \\u00e7\\u0131kabilece\\u011fini; Goldman Sachs ise 80 bin yeni istihdam ve y\\u00fczde 4,1 i\\u015fsizlik bekledi\\u011fini, Bank of America\\u2019n\\u0131n 60 bin ki\\u015filik art\\u0131\\u015f ve bunun 50 bininin \\u00f6zel sekt\\u00f6rden gelmesini \\u00f6ng\\u00f6rd\\u00fc\\u011f\\u00fcn\\u00fc g\\u00f6steriyor.\\nWells Fargo, ortalama saatlik kazan\\u00e7lar\\u0131n ayl\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 0,3 artarak y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00fccret b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesini y\\u00fczde 3,2\\u2019ye ta\\u015f\\u0131yaca\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Kalshi verilerine g\\u00f6re istihdam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n\\u0131n 90 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali y\\u00fczde 60, 100 bini a\\u015fma ihtimali ise y\\u00fczde 50 olarak fiyatlan\\u0131rken, A\\u011fustos\\u2019ta tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artm\\u0131\\u015f, Temmuz verisi ise 21 bine revize edilmi\\u015fti.\\nGoldman Sachs, bir yandan Ekim yerine Aral\\u0131k\\u2019a i\\u015faret ederek bir sonraki 25 baz puanl\\u0131k Fed art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131 Aral\\u0131k\\u2019a erteledi\\u011fini ve fiyat bask\\u0131lar\\u0131n\\u0131n yava\\u015flamas\\u0131 halinde FOMC\\u2019nin ek art\\u0131\\u015flara gerek olmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131na karar verebilece\\u011fini s\\u00f6yledi. Banka bu de\\u011fi\\u015fikli\\u011fi, A\\u011fustos PCE enflasyonunun y\\u0131ll\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3,4 ile beklentilerin alt\\u0131nda gelmesine, \\u00e7ekirdek PCE\\u2019nin yakla\\u015f\\u0131k y\\u00fczde 3 seviyesinde kalmas\\u0131na ve New York Fed Ba\\u015fkan\\u0131 John Williams\\u2019\\u0131n g\\u00fcvercin mesajlar\\u0131na ba\\u011flad\\u0131; ayr\\u0131ca d\\u00f6rd\\u00fcnc\\u00fc \\u00e7eyrek \\u00e7ekirdek PCE tahminini y\\u00fczde 3,0 olarak a\\u00e7\\u0131klad\\u0131.\\nGoldman\\u2019\\u0131n bu d\\u00f6n\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc, 2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirilerinde per\\u015fembe g\\u00fcn\\u00fc bir y\\u0131l\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n s\\u00fcrenin en b\\u00fcy\\u00fck g\\u00fcnl\\u00fck d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcn\\u00fc desteklerken, ABD dolar\\u0131ndan da bir miktar destek \\u00e7ekti. Citi Research de piyasalar\\u0131n fiyatlad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 kadar agresif art\\u0131\\u015flara Fed\\u2019in ihtiya\\u00e7 duymayabilece\\u011fini, petrol\\u00fcn 100 dolar civar\\u0131na yakla\\u015fmas\\u0131n\\u0131n ise enflasyonu yukar\\u0131 \\u00e7ekti\\u011fini sorgulad\\u0131.\\nBrent petrol\\u00fcn \\u00c7in\\u2019in yak\\u0131t ihracat\\u0131n\\u0131 durdurmas\\u0131 ve ABD asker\\u00ee konu\\u015fland\\u0131rmalar\\u0131yla yeniden 100 dolar\\u0131n \\u00fczerine \\u00e7\\u0131kmas\\u0131, enerji kaynakl\\u0131 enflasyonun Ekim fiyatlamas\\u0131n\\u0131 h\\u0131zla canland\\u0131rabilece\\u011fi anlam\\u0131na geliyor. Uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri 2002 zirvelerine yak\\u0131n seyrederken, cuma g\\u00fcnk\\u00fc istihdam raporu Ekim hamlesi, Aral\\u0131k art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 ve Fed\\u2019in beklemede kalaca\\u011f\\u0131 senaryo aras\\u0131nda piyasadaki dengeyi belirleyebilir; verinin g\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc gelmesi halinde Ekim\\u2019de yeni bir faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131n ihtimali y\\u00fckselirken, zay\\u0131f bir tablo ara verme beklentisini g\\u00fc\\u00e7lendirebilir ve ilk dakikalarda dolar, ABD vadeli endeksleri, alt\\u0131n ve Bitcoin\\u2019de y\\u00fcksek oynakl\\u0131k bekleniyor.\\n\"}]","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[183,97],"class_list":["post-25692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-tarim-disi-istihdam","tag-tdi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25692"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25849,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25692\/revisions\/25849"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}