{"id":2913,"date":"2026-06-18T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=2913"},"modified":"2026-06-18T04:17:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:17:04","slug":"faiz-karari-sonrasi-fedin-izleyecegi-yol-konusunda-analistler-arasinda-gorus-ayriligi-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=2913","title":{"rendered":"Faiz Karar\u0131 Sonras\u0131 Fed&#8217;in \u0130zleyece\u011fi Yol Konusunda Analistler Aras\u0131nda G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f Ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Var"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed piyasalara izlenecek bir yol g\u00f6stermedi ve analistler \u015fimdi \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 haritalar \u00e7iziyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Y\u0131l boyunca sabit faiz oranlar\u0131 beklentisi ile Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yaz\u0131 tura atma ihtimali aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131k, Warsh&#8217;\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla ortaya koydu\u011fu ger\u00e7ek belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Fed taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan bir yol haritas\u0131 olmadan, her enflasyon ve istihdam verisi art\u0131k daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 dalgalanmaya devam ederse analistlerin vard\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7 yelpazesi daha da geni\u015fleyecektir. \u00d6ncelik s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda ikinci s\u0131rada yer alan bilan\u00e7o g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc, izlenmesi gereken bir sinyal: niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir hareket, faiz hareketinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131racak ve Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse etkisini daha da art\u0131racakt\u0131r. ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak yapay zeka destekli sermaye harcamalar\u0131, mevcut enerji \u015fokunun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7en \u015fahin risk senaryosuna yap\u0131sal bir boyut kat\u0131yor. Net etki, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca her \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda hassas ve yeniden fiyatland\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli bir faiz piyasas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Analistler ,<\/strong><br>Haziran ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed&#8217;in bir sonraki hamlesi konusunda ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda; bir analist Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfederken, bir di\u011feri yapay zek\u00e2 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin gelecek y\u0131l s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00d6zet:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tuttu; nokta grafi\u011fi \u015fahin bir y\u00f6ne kayd\u0131 ve ortalama, bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bir analist, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bekleme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tavsiyede bulunuyor, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor ve 2027 sonuna kadar toplamda iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0130kinci bir analist ise 2026 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya indirim olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminini korurken, 2027&#8217;de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunuyor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Her iki yetkili de Warsh&#8217;\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi kald\u0131rma ve a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 basitle\u015ftirme karar\u0131n\u0131, Fed&#8217;in piyasalara do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini azaltarak olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0130leti\u015fim, bilan\u00e7o, veri, verimlilik ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ile enflasyon \u00e7er\u00e7evesini kapsayan be\u015f g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; bilan\u00e7o incelemesi ikinci s\u0131rada yer alarak parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli bir de\u011ferlendirme konusu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yapay zek\u00e2 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yap\u0131lan sermaye harcamalar\u0131yla desteklenen ABD&#8217;deki s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme, gelecekteki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel bir tetikleyici olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130ki menkul k\u0131ymet firmas\u0131, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Federal Rezerv&#8217;in politika yolu hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 ancak genel olarak temkinli de\u011ferlendirmeler yay\u0131nlad\u0131; bunlardan biri Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse e\u015fit olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, di\u011feri 2026 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bekleme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunarak gelecek y\u0131la do\u011fru faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Her iki analiz de ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ekler k\u00fcmesine odaklan\u0131yor. Fed, beklendi\u011fi gibi g\u00f6sterge faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,5 ile %3,75 aras\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde basitle\u015ftirerek, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi tamamen kald\u0131rd\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n politikay\u0131 Fed tahminlerinden ziyade gelen verilere g\u00f6re fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti. \u0130leti\u015fim, bilan\u00e7o, veri kaynaklar\u0131, verimlilik ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ile enflasyon \u00e7er\u00e7evesini incelemek \u00fczere be\u015f g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc olu\u015fturuldu\u011fu duyuruldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nokta grafi\u011fi, \u015fahinlerin tahminlerini bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karmad\u0131; ortalama tahmin, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam ve istikrarl\u0131 enflasyonun deste\u011fiyle bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bir analist, Fed&#8217;in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunurken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor ve 2027 sonuna kadar iki kez faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma ihtimalinden bahsediyor. Di\u011fer bir analist ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya indirim beklemedi\u011fini belirtirken, yapay zek\u00e2 destekli sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ABD&#8217;de s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin potansiyel bir kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6stererek, gelecek y\u0131l s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma riskinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ediyor ve bu durumun gelecekteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Her ikisi de g\u00f6rev g\u00fcc\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli olarak i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6ncelik s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda ikinci s\u0131rada yer alan bilan\u00e7o incelemesi, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n temel bir politika e\u011filimi olmaya devam etti\u011fini ve herhangi bir faiz karar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme ortadan kalk\u0131nca, gelen verilere olan y\u00fck \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131 ve 2026&#8217;n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede geni\u015f.<br><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed piyasalara izlenecek bir yol g\u00f6stermedi ve analistler \u015fimdi \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 haritalar \u00e7iziyorlar. Y\u0131l boyunca sabit faiz oranlar\u0131 beklentisi ile<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[27,26,55],"class_list":["post-2913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-warsh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2913"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2913\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2915,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2913\/revisions\/2915"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}