ABD\u2019de Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi 14 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve veri, Fed\u2019in 27-28 Ekim\u2019deki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki son b\u00fcy\u00fck enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olacak. Piyasalar man\u015fet enflasyonda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6\u2013%3,7, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4 ve ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2013%0,3 band\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, rekor benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n man\u015feti yukar\u0131 itmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Cleveland Fed\u2019in nowcast modeli man\u015fette %3,60, \u00e7ekirdekte %2,39 seviyesine i\u015faret ederken, CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fczde 20 civar\u0131nda, Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar en az bir art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali ise y\u00fczde 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Fed cephesinde 7 Ekim\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan tutanaklar, \u00fcyelerin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\u0131r\u0131m daha uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; Waller daha fazla art\u0131r\u0131m gerekebilece\u011fini, Williams y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir art\u0131r\u0131m daha \u201cmakul\u201d oldu\u011funu, Bowman ve Jefferson ise temkinli durdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Yeni gelen al\u0131nt\u0131da ise $BTC opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda volatilitenin CPI \u00f6ncesi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve Deribit verilerine g\u00f6re 12 Ekim\u2019deki bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 16 Ekim vadesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 15.502 BTC\u2019lik a\u00e7\u0131k opsiyon bulundu\u011fu, bunun 9.128 BTC\u2019sinin put oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n 76.000\u201380.000 dolar band\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, yani piyasan\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6rece sakin bir hafta fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1 Ekim\u2019de %5,34 ile 2002\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 7 Ekim\u2019de %5,36\u2019ya kadar \u00e7\u0131karken, dolar endeksi 102,3 b\u00f6lgesine y\u00fckseldi. Zay\u0131f Eyl\u00fcl istihdam verisi, enerji enflasyonu ve kripto piyasas\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonla\u015fma birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, veri sonras\u0131 ilk tepkinin ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udca1 Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> A\u00e7\u0131k opsiyon, belirli bir fiyat ve tarihte al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren fakat zorunluluk i\u00e7ermeyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin piyasada h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda a\u00e7\u0131kta duran toplam say\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Put ise fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131n\u0131 ifade eder; bu y\u00fczden put a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha temkinli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcca Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> T\u00dcFE, Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na dair beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in dolar, tahvil faizleri ve riskli varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Beklentiden y\u00fcksek bir veri, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar ve tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131, hisse ve kriptoyu ise bask\u0131layabilir; daha yumu\u015fak bir veri ise tersi y\u00f6nde etki edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi 14 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve veri, Fed\u2019in 27-28 Ekim\u2019deki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki son<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"[{\"ts\":\"2026-10-12 18:31:49\",\"content\":\"\\nSpot: ABD\\u2019de Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 T\\u00dcFE verisi 14 Ekim \\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcn\\u00fc TS\\u0130 15:30\\u2019da a\\u00e7\\u0131klanacak. Rekor benzin fiyatlar\\u0131 man\\u015fet enflasyonu yukar\\u0131 itecek, g\\u00f6zler \\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda. Piyasalar Ekim\\u2019de faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimaline y\\u00fczde 20 civar\\u0131nda olas\\u0131l\\u0131k veriyor; s\\u0131cak bir veri bu tabloyu tek seferde de\\u011fi\\u015ftirebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nVeri Ne Zaman, Ne Bekleniyor?\\n\\n\\n\\nABD \\u00c7al\\u0131\\u015fma \\u0130statistikleri B\\u00fcrosu (BLS), Eyl\\u00fcl 2026 T\\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\\u2019ni 14 Ekim \\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcn\\u00fc New York saatiyle 08:30\\u2019da, T\\u00fcrkiye saatiyle 15:30\\u2019da yay\\u0131mlayacak. Veri, Fed\\u2019in 27-28 Ekim\\u2019deki toplant\\u0131s\\u0131ndan \\u00f6nceki son b\\u00fcy\\u00fck enflasyon g\\u00f6stergesi.\\n\\n\\n\\nG\\u00f6stergeA\\u011fustos (\\u00d6nceki)Eyl\\u00fcl BeklentisiMan\\u015fet T\\u00dcFE (y\\u0131ll\\u0131k)%3,4%3,6 \\u2013 %3,7Man\\u015fet T\\u00dcFE (ayl\\u0131k)%0,4%0,5 \\u2013 %0,6\\u00c7ekirdek T\\u00dcFE (y\\u0131ll\\u0131k)%2,4%2,4\\u00c7ekirdek T\\u00dcFE (ayl\\u0131k)%0,3%0,2\\n\\n\\n\\nPiyasa konsens\\u00fcs\\u00fc man\\u015fet enflasyonda y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %3,7\\u2019yi g\\u00f6steriyor. Cleveland Fed\\u2019in anl\\u0131k tahmin modeli (nowcast) ise man\\u015fette %3,60, \\u00e7ekirdekte %2,39 seviyesine i\\u015faret ediyor.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nMan\\u015fet Neden Y\\u00fckselecek?\\n\\n\\n\\nSebep tek kelimeyle enerji. \\u0130ran sava\\u015f\\u0131 ve H\\u00fcrm\\u00fcz Bo\\u011faz\\u0131\\u2019ndaki tanker trafi\\u011finin aksamas\\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\\u0131n\\u0131 y\\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutuyor. Brent petrol Eyl\\u00fcl sonunda varil ba\\u015f\\u0131na 107 dolar civar\\u0131nda i\\u015flem g\\u00f6rd\\u00fc. ABD\\u2019de benzinin galon fiyat\\u0131 Eyl\\u00fcl ortalamas\\u0131nda 4,33 dolara \\u00e7\\u0131kt\\u0131; bu, Eyl\\u00fcl ay\\u0131 i\\u00e7in tarihi rekor ve bir y\\u0131l \\u00f6nceki seviyenin bir dolar\\u0131 a\\u015fk\\u0131n \\u00fczerinde.\\n\\n\\n\\nA\\u011fustos verisinde benzin tek ba\\u015f\\u0131na ayl\\u0131k %3,9 artm\\u0131\\u015f ve toplam art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131n \\u00fc\\u00e7te birinden fazlas\\u0131n\\u0131 olu\\u015fturmu\\u015ftu. Enerji kalemi y\\u0131ll\\u0131k bazda %16,3, u\\u00e7ak bileti fiyatlar\\u0131 ise %23,4 y\\u00fckselmi\\u015fti. Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de enerjinin man\\u015fete katk\\u0131s\\u0131n\\u0131n daha da b\\u00fcy\\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u00c7ekirdek Neden Kritik?\\n\\n\\n\\nFed, g\\u0131da ve enerjiden ar\\u0131nd\\u0131r\\u0131lm\\u0131\\u015f \\u00e7ekirdek enflasyona bakarak \\u201cfiyat bask\\u0131s\\u0131 ekonomiye yay\\u0131l\\u0131yor mu?\\u201d sorusunun cevab\\u0131n\\u0131 ar\\u0131yor. A\\u011fustos\\u2019ta y\\u0131ll\\u0131k \\u00e7ekirdek T\\u00dcFE %2,4 ile Mart 2021\\u2019den bu yana en d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck seviyeye indi; ancak ayl\\u0131k bazda %0,2\\u2019den %0,3\\u2019e h\\u0131zland\\u0131. Y\\u0131ll\\u0131k rakam\\u0131n d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck g\\u00f6r\\u00fcnmesinin bir k\\u0131sm\\u0131 2025\\u2019teki y\\u00fcksek baz etkisinden kaynaklan\\u0131yor. Bu y\\u00fczden piyasa bu kez ayl\\u0131k \\u00e7ekirdek rakam\\u0131na odaklanacak.\\n\\n\\n\\nDikkat edilmesi gereken bir ba\\u015fka nokta: Fed\\u2019in hedef ald\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 g\\u00f6sterge PCE. A\\u011fustos\\u2019ta \\u00e7ekirdek PCE y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %3,0 seviyesindeydi; yani \\u00e7ekirdek T\\u00dcFE\\u2019nin %2,4\\u2019te g\\u00f6r\\u00fcnmesi, Fed a\\u00e7\\u0131s\\u0131ndan enflasyonun hedefe yak\\u0131n oldu\\u011fu anlam\\u0131na gelmiyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nTakip edilecek alt kalemler: konut (kira ve OER), u\\u00e7ak biletleri, ula\\u015ft\\u0131rma hizmetleri ve \\u201cs\\u00fcper \\u00e7ekirdek\\u201d (konut hari\\u00e7 \\u00e7ekirdek hizmetler). Akaryak\\u0131t maliyetinin hizmet fiyatlar\\u0131na s\\u0131z\\u0131p s\\u0131zmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 en erken bu kalemlerde g\\u00f6r\\u00fcl\\u00fcr.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nFed Cephesinde Durum\\n\\n\\n\\nFed, 16 Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de Temmuz 2023\\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131n\\u0131 yaparak politika faizini %3,75\\u20134,00 band\\u0131na \\u00e7ekti. Karar oybirli\\u011fiyle al\\u0131nd\\u0131. Nokta grafi\\u011fi y\\u0131l sonu i\\u00e7in %4,1 medyan seviyeyi g\\u00f6steriyor; bu da 2026 bitmeden 25 baz puanl\\u0131k bir art\\u0131r\\u0131m daha anlam\\u0131na geliyor.\\n\\n\\n\\n7 Ekim\\u2019de yay\\u0131mlanan Eyl\\u00fcl toplant\\u0131 tutanaklar\\u0131, \\u00fcyelerin \\u00e7o\\u011funlu\\u011funun y\\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 daha uygun g\\u00f6rd\\u00fc\\u011f\\u00fcn\\u00fc ortaya koydu. Ancak zamanlama net de\\u011fil:\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nWaller: Daha fazla art\\u0131r\\u0131m gerekebilece\\u011fini, ancak bunlar\\u0131n art arda toplant\\u0131larda gelmek zorunda olmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131 s\\u00f6yledi.\\n\\n\\n\\nWilliams: Y\\u0131l i\\u00e7inde bir art\\u0131r\\u0131m daha \\u201cmakul\\u201d ancak acele yok.\\n\\n\\n\\nBowman ve Jefferson: Ek art\\u0131r\\u0131m konusunda temkinli taraf.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nZay\\u0131f Eyl\\u00fcl istihdam verisi de beklentileri a\\u015fa\\u011f\\u0131 \\u00e7ekti: Tar\\u0131m d\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 istihdam yaln\\u0131zca 29 bin artt\\u0131 (beklenti yakla\\u015f\\u0131k 90 bin), i\\u015fsizlik oran\\u0131 %4,2\\u2019ye y\\u00fckseldi, \\u00fccret art\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %3,0\\u2019a geriledi. \\u00dccretler enflasyonun gerisinde kald\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 i\\u00e7in reel \\u00fccretler eriyor; bu tablo baz\\u0131 analistlerce stagflasyon riski olarak okunuyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nCME FedWatch verilerine g\\u00f6re piyasa Ekim toplant\\u0131s\\u0131nda art\\u0131r\\u0131m ihtimalini y\\u00fczde 20 civar\\u0131nda, Aral\\u0131k\\u2019a kadar en az bir art\\u0131r\\u0131m ihtimalini ise y\\u00fczde 80\\u2019in \\u00fczerinde fiyatl\\u0131yor. 3 Kas\\u0131m\\u2019daki ara se\\u00e7imlerin Fed toplant\\u0131s\\u0131ndan sadece alt\\u0131 g\\u00fcn sonra yap\\u0131lacak olmas\\u0131 da Ekim\\u2019de \\u201cbekle-g\\u00f6r\\u201d e\\u011filimini destekleyen bir unsur.\\n\\n\\n\\nTahvil ve Dolar: ABD 10 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k tahvil faizi 1 Ekim\\u2019de %5,34 ile 2002\\u2019den bu yana en y\\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\\u00f6rd\\u00fc, 7 Ekim\\u2019de %5,36\\u2019ya kadar \\u00e7\\u0131kt\\u0131. 2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k tahvil %4,79 civar\\u0131nda. Dolar endeksi (DXY) tutanaklar\\u0131n ard\\u0131ndan 102,3 b\\u00f6lgesine y\\u00fckseldi.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nSENARYO ANAL\\u0130Z\\u0130: VER\\u0130YE G\\u00d6RE P\\u0130YASALAR NASIL HAREKET EDEB\\u0130L\\u0130R?\\n\\n\\n\\n1) SICAK VER\\u0130Man\\u015fet %3,8 ve \\u00fczeri, \\u00e7ekirdek ayl\\u0131k %0,4 ve \\u00fczeri\\n\\n\\n\\nBu senaryo enerji \\u015fokunun \\u00e7ekirdek fiyatlara yay\\u0131ld\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 anlam\\u0131na gelir. Piyasan\\u0131n d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck fiyatlad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 Ekim art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 yeniden masaya gelir, Aral\\u0131k\\u2019ta 50 baz puanl\\u0131k hamle konu\\u015fulmaya ba\\u015flanabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nDolar (DXY): G\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc y\\u00fckseli\\u015f. K\\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri dolar lehine d\\u00f6ner.\\n\\n\\n\\nEUR\\\/USD: A\\u015fa\\u011f\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc bask\\u0131.\\n\\n\\n\\nUSD\\\/JPY: Yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc hareket. 160 seviyesi Japonya\\u2019n\\u0131n m\\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle kritik e\\u015fik olarak izlenir.\\n\\n\\n\\nABD tahvil faizleri: 2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k faiz ba\\u015fta olmak \\u00fczere sert y\\u00fckseli\\u015f; 10 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k i\\u00e7in %5,36\\u2019l\\u0131k zirve test edilebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nAlt\\u0131n: Bask\\u0131 alt\\u0131nda kal\\u0131r. Faiz getirmeyen bir varl\\u0131k oldu\\u011fu i\\u00e7in y\\u00fckselen reel faizler alt\\u0131n\\u0131 olumsuz etkiler. 28 Eyl\\u00fcl\\u2019de g\\u00f6r\\u00fclen 4.110 dolarl\\u0131k sekiz haftal\\u0131k dip b\\u00f6lgesi yeniden g\\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Ancak jeopolitik risk primi d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc\\u015fleri s\\u0131n\\u0131rlayabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nBitcoin ve kripto: Risk i\\u015ftah\\u0131n\\u0131n azalmas\\u0131 ve likidite beklentilerinin daralmas\\u0131yla sat\\u0131\\u015f bask\\u0131s\\u0131. Kald\\u0131ra\\u00e7l\\u0131 pozisyonlarda tasfiye riski y\\u00fcksek; altcoinler Bitcoin\\u2019den daha sert d\\u00fc\\u015febilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nABD borsalar\\u0131: Sat\\u0131\\u015f bask\\u0131s\\u0131. Teknoloji a\\u011f\\u0131rl\\u0131kl\\u0131 Nasdaq, y\\u00fcksek iskonto oranlar\\u0131na en hassas endeks olarak daha fazla etkilenir.\\n\\n\\n\\nGeli\\u015fen piyasalar ve TL: G\\u00fc\\u00e7l\\u00fc dolar ve y\\u00fcksek ABD faizi geli\\u015fen piyasa varl\\u0131klar\\u0131ndan \\u00e7\\u0131k\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 tetikleyebilir; Borsa \\u0130stanbul\\u2019da yabanc\\u0131 sat\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 ve kurda yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc bask\\u0131 g\\u00f6r\\u00fclebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n2) BEKLENT\\u0130YE PARALEL (NORMAL) VER\\u0130Man\\u015fet %3,6 \\u2013 %3,7, \\u00e7ekirdek ayl\\u0131k %0,2 \\u2013 %0,3, y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %2,4\\n\\n\\n\\nPiyasan\\u0131n mevcut fiyatlamas\\u0131 korunur: Ekim\\u2019de bekleme, Aral\\u0131k\\u2019ta art\\u0131r\\u0131m. Man\\u015fetteki y\\u00fckseli\\u015f \\u201cenerji kaynakl\\u0131 ve ge\\u00e7ici\\u201d olarak okunur.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nDolar: S\\u0131n\\u0131rl\\u0131 hareket; ilk tepki k\\u0131sa s\\u00fcrede dengelenir.\\n\\n\\n\\nTahvil faizleri: Yatay seyir.\\n\\n\\n\\nAlt\\u0131n: Y\\u00f6n i\\u00e7in jeopolitik geli\\u015fmeler ve dolar takip edilir; belirgin bir veri etkisi beklenmez.\\n\\n\\n\\nBitcoin: Veri kaynakl\\u0131 volatilite k\\u0131sa s\\u00fcrer, kripto piyasas\\u0131 kendi dinamiklerine (ETF ak\\u0131\\u015flar\\u0131, fonlama oranlar\\u0131) d\\u00f6ner.\\n\\n\\n\\nBorsalar: Odak ayn\\u0131 g\\u00fcn a\\u00e7\\u0131klanacak banka bilan\\u00e7olar\\u0131na (Bank of America, Morgan Stanley) ve s\\u00fcper \\u00e7ekirdek detaylar\\u0131na kayar.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nBu senaryoda dikkat: Yuvarlama etkisi. BLS rakamlar\\u0131 tek ondal\\u0131kla a\\u00e7\\u0131klar; %0,26 da %0,34 da \\u201c%0,3\\u201d olarak g\\u00f6r\\u00fcn\\u00fcr. Algoritmalar saniyeler i\\u00e7inde yuvarlanmam\\u0131\\u015f rakam\\u0131 hesaplad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 i\\u00e7in a\\u00e7\\u0131klanan rakam beklentiye e\\u015fit olsa bile ilk tepki iki y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc olabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n3) \\u0130Y\\u0130 (SO\\u011eUK) VER\\u0130Man\\u015fet %3,5 ve alt\\u0131, \\u00e7ekirdek ayl\\u0131k %0,1 ve alt\\u0131\\n\\n\\n\\nZay\\u0131f istihdam verisiyle birle\\u015fti\\u011finde Fed\\u2019in art\\u0131r\\u0131m d\\u00f6ng\\u00fcs\\u00fcn\\u00fcn sonuna yakla\\u015f\\u0131ld\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131 tezi g\\u00fc\\u00e7lenir. Aral\\u0131k art\\u0131r\\u0131m\\u0131 ihtimali de sorgulanmaya ba\\u015flar.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nDolar: Belirgin zay\\u0131flama.\\n\\n\\n\\nEUR\\\/USD: Yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc hareket.\\n\\n\\n\\nUSD\\\/JPY: A\\u015fa\\u011f\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc d\\u00fczeltme.\\n\\n\\n\\nTahvil faizleri: Gerileme, \\u00f6zellikle 2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k vadede.\\n\\n\\n\\nAlt\\u0131n: En \\u00e7ok fayda sa\\u011flayan varl\\u0131klardan biri olur; d\\u00fc\\u015fen reel faiz ve zay\\u0131f dolar birlikte destek verir.\\n\\n\\n\\nBitcoin ve kripto: Likidite beklentisinin iyile\\u015fmesiyle yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc tepki. Bu senaryoda altcoinlerde de hareketlenme g\\u00f6r\\u00fclebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nABD borsalar\\u0131: Y\\u00fckseli\\u015f; teknoloji hisseleri \\u00f6ne \\u00e7\\u0131kar.\\n\\n\\n\\nGeli\\u015fen piyasalar ve TL: Zay\\u0131f dolar ortam\\u0131 risk i\\u015ftah\\u0131n\\u0131 destekler, Borsa \\u0130stanbul\\u2019a olumlu yans\\u0131yabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n4) KARMA SENARYO (G\\u00f6z Ard\\u0131 Edilmemeli)Man\\u015fet %3,8 ve \\u00fczeri, \\u00e7ekirdek ayl\\u0131k %0,2 ve alt\\u0131\\n\\n\\n\\nBu ay en olas\\u0131 s\\u00fcrprizlerden biri bu. Enerji kaynakl\\u0131 y\\u00fcksek man\\u015fet ama sakin \\u00e7ekirdek, \\u201cenerji \\u015foku var, yay\\u0131lma yok\\u201d mesaj\\u0131 verir. \\u0130lk saniyelerde man\\u015fete tepki gelip ard\\u0131ndan \\u00e7ekirde\\u011fe g\\u00f6re ters d\\u00f6n\\u00fc\\u015f ya\\u015fanabilir. Alt\\u0131n ve petrol y\\u00fckseli\\u015fini korurken dolar ve tahvil faizleri karars\\u0131z kalabilir; Bitcoin ise ilk d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcn ard\\u0131ndan toparlanma e\\u011filimi g\\u00f6sterebilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nAyn\\u0131 G\\u00fcn ve Sonras\\u0131nda Takip Edilecekler (TS\\u0130)\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n14 Ekim \\u00c7ar\\u015famba 15:30: ABD Eyl\\u00fcl T\\u00dcFE\\n\\n\\n\\n14 Ekim: Bank of America ve Morgan Stanley bilan\\u00e7olar\\u0131 (piyasa a\\u00e7\\u0131l\\u0131\\u015f\\u0131 \\u00f6ncesi), ASML bilan\\u00e7osu\\n\\n\\n\\n14 Ekim 21:00: Fed Bej Kitap raporu\\n\\n\\n\\n15 Ekim 15:30: ABD Eyl\\u00fcl \\u00dcFE\\n\\n\\n\\n28 Ekim 21:00: Fed faiz karar\\u0131, ard\\u0131ndan Ba\\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\\u2019\\u0131n bas\\u0131n toplant\\u0131s\\u0131\\n\\n\\n\\n29 Ekim 15:30: ABD Eyl\\u00fcl PCE ve 3. \\u00e7eyrek GSYH \\u00f6nc\\u00fc tahmini\\n\\n\\n\\n3 Kas\\u0131m: ABD ara se\\u00e7imleri\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nYat\\u0131r\\u0131mc\\u0131lar \\u0130\\u00e7in Kontrol Listesi\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nVeriden hemen \\u00f6nce son konsens\\u00fcs ve Cleveland Fed nowcast rakam\\u0131n\\u0131 kontrol edin.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130lk olarak ayl\\u0131k \\u00e7ekirdek T\\u00dcFE\\u2019ye bak\\u0131n; piyasan\\u0131n as\\u0131l tepkisi buradan gelir.\\n\\n\\n\\nU\\u00e7ak bileti, ula\\u015ft\\u0131rma ve s\\u00fcper \\u00e7ekirdek kalemlerinde akaryak\\u0131t etkisinin yay\\u0131l\\u0131p yay\\u0131lmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131n\\u0131 izleyin.\\n\\n\\n\\n2 y\\u0131ll\\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin veri \\u00f6ncesi ve sonras\\u0131 seviyesini kar\\u015f\\u0131la\\u015ft\\u0131r\\u0131n; Fed beklentisindeki de\\u011fi\\u015fimin en net g\\u00f6stergesi budur.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u0130lk hareketin dakikalar i\\u00e7inde tersine d\\u00f6nebilece\\u011fini unutmay\\u0131n.\\n\\n\\n\\nVeri an\\u0131nda spreadler a\\u00e7\\u0131l\\u0131r, stop emirleri kayma (slippage) ile beklenenden k\\u00f6t\\u00fc fiyattan ger\\u00e7ekle\\u015febilir. Kald\\u0131ra\\u00e7l\\u0131 i\\u015flemlerde pozisyon b\\u00fcy\\u00fckl\\u00fc\\u011f\\u00fcn\\u00fc d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fcrmek risk y\\u00f6netiminin temelidir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nS\\u0131k\\u00e7a Sorulan Sorular\\n\\n\\n\\nABD T\\u00dcFE verisi saat ka\\u00e7ta a\\u00e7\\u0131klanacak?14 Ekim 2026 \\u00c7ar\\u015famba, T\\u00fcrkiye saatiyle 15:30.\\n\\n\\n\\nEyl\\u00fcl T\\u00dcFE beklentisi nedir?Man\\u015fette y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %3,6\\u20133,7, \\u00e7ekirdekte y\\u0131ll\\u0131k %2,4 ve ayl\\u0131k %0,2 bekleniyor.\\n\\n\\n\\nFed Ekim\\u2019de faiz art\\u0131r\\u0131r m\\u0131?Piyasa fiyatlamas\\u0131na g\\u00f6re ihtimal d\\u00fc\\u015f\\u00fck, y\\u00fczde 20 civar\\u0131nda. Ancak \\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda sert bir y\\u00fckseli\\u015f bu ihtimali h\\u0131zla art\\u0131rabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\nS\\u0131cak enflasyon verisi Bitcoin\\u2019i nas\\u0131l etkiler?Genellikle dolar ve tahvil faizlerini y\\u00fckseltti\\u011fi i\\u00e7in risk i\\u015ftah\\u0131n\\u0131 azalt\\u0131r ve Bitcoin \\u00fczerinde sat\\u0131\\u015f bask\\u0131s\\u0131 olu\\u015fturur.\\n\\n\\n\\nEnflasyon verisi alt\\u0131n\\u0131 nas\\u0131l etkiler?S\\u0131cak veri reel faizleri y\\u00fckselterek alt\\u0131n\\u0131 bask\\u0131lar; so\\u011fuk veri ise d\\u00fc\\u015fen faiz ve zay\\u0131f dolar \\u00fczerinden alt\\u0131n\\u0131 destekler. Jeopolitik riskler bu ili\\u015fkiyi zaman zaman zay\\u0131flatabilir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\nSonu\\u00e7\\n\\n\\n\\n\\u00c7ar\\u015famba g\\u00fcnk\\u00fc veride man\\u015fetin y\\u00fckselmesi neredeyse kesin; as\\u0131l soru, enerji \\u015fokunun \\u00e7ekirdek fiyatlara s\\u0131z\\u0131p s\\u0131zmad\\u0131\\u011f\\u0131. \\u00c7ekirdek beklentiye paralel gelirse Fed\\u2019in Ekim\\u2019de beklemesi ve Aral\\u0131k\\u2019\\u0131 i\\u015faret etmesi ana senaryo olarak kal\\u0131r. \\u00c7ekirdekte s\\u00fcrpriz yukar\\u0131 y\\u00f6nl\\u00fc olursa dolar, tahvil faizleri ve risk varl\\u0131klar\\u0131nda sert bir yeniden fiyatlama g\\u00f6r\\u00fclebilir. Zay\\u0131flayan istihdam piyasas\\u0131 ile inat\\u00e7\\u0131 enerji enflasyonu aras\\u0131nda s\\u0131k\\u0131\\u015fan Fed i\\u00e7in bu veri, y\\u0131l\\u0131n kalan\\u0131ndaki faiz yolunu belirleyecek en kritik e\\u015fiklerden biri.\\n\\n\\n\\nBu i\\u00e7erik bilgilendirme ama\\u00e7l\\u0131d\\u0131r, yat\\u0131r\\u0131m tavsiyesi de\\u011fildir.\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\"}]","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[76,26,6450,110],"class_list":["post-30043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-son-dakikalar","tag-enflasyon","tag-fed","tag-onemli","tag-tufe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30043","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30043"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30043\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30269,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30043\/revisions\/30269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30043"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30043"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30043"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}