{"id":30448,"date":"2026-10-13T20:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T17:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448"},"modified":"2026-10-13T20:57:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T17:57:24","slug":"son-2-yilda-abd-enflasyonu-beklentiyi-asan-tufe-verisi-sadece-3-kez-geldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448","title":{"rendered":"Son 2 Y\u0131lda ABD Enflasyonu: Beklentiyi A\u015fan T\u00dcFE Verisi Sadece 3 Kez Geldi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD&#8217;de son iki y\u0131lda a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri, piyasa tahminlerinin sistematik olarak yukar\u0131da kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ekim 2024&#8217;ten bu yana a\u00e7\u0131klanan 23 T\u00dcFE raporunda man\u015fet enflasyon yaln\u0131zca 3 kez beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan a\u00e7\u0131klama say\u0131s\u0131 ise bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_88 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-transparent ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor:pointer\">\u0130\u00e7indekiler<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Kapsam\" >Kapsam<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Dort_gostergede_tablo\" >D\u00f6rt g\u00f6stergede tablo<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Cekirdek_enflasyon_piyasayi_defalarca_sasirtti\" >\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon piyasay\u0131 defalarca \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Yukari_yonlu_surprizler_sinirli_ve_daginik_kaldi\" >Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k kald\u0131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Kasim_2025_Son_iki_yilin_en_sert_sapmasi\" >Kas\u0131m 2025: Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en sert sapmas\u0131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#2026_Enflasyon_yukseldi_tahminler_isabetli_kaldi\" >2026: Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi, tahminler isabetli kald\u0131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Yatirimci_acisindan_degerlendirme\" >Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirme<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=30448\/#Siradaki_durak_Eylul_verisi\" >S\u0131radaki durak: Eyl\u00fcl verisi<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Kapsam\"><\/span><strong>Kapsam<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekim 2024 \u2013 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 aras\u0131nda BLS taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan 23 T\u00dcFE raporu incelendi. Ekim 2025 verisi federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapanmas\u0131 nedeniyle hi\u00e7 yay\u0131mlanmad\u0131. Kas\u0131m 2025 raporunda ise yaln\u0131zca y\u0131ll\u0131k rakamlar payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131, ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131klanmad\u0131. Bu nedenle ayl\u0131k g\u00f6stergelerde 22, y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6stergelerde 23 veri noktas\u0131 bulunuyor. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesi piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc esas al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dort_gostergede_tablo\"><\/span><strong>D\u00f6rt g\u00f6stergede tablo<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>G\u00f6sterge<\/th><th>Beklenti \u00dcst\u00fc<\/th><th>Beklenti Alt\u0131<\/th><th>Beklenti Dahilinde<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE \u2013 Ayl\u0131k<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE \u2013 Y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE \u2013 Ayl\u0131k<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE \u2013 Y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00f6rt g\u00f6stergenin hi\u00e7birinde beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klama say\u0131s\u0131 4&#8217;\u00fc ge\u00e7medi. En \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyonda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 22 a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n 11&#8217;i, yani yar\u0131s\u0131 tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131, sadece 4&#8217;\u00fc beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Cekirdek_enflasyon_piyasayi_defalarca_sasirtti\"><\/span><strong>\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon piyasay\u0131 defalarca \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed&#8217;in faiz kararlar\u0131nda \u00f6ncelikli takip etti\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en net a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlerini \u00fcretti. Mart\u2013Temmuz 2025 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan be\u015f raporun tamam\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentinin alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin fiyatlara h\u0131zla yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131, verilerde beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmad\u0131. Seri, 2026&#8217;da da s\u00fcrd\u00fc: Haziran verisinde \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 0,2 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n yatay a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Yukari_yonlu_surprizler_sinirli_ve_daginik_kaldi\"><\/span><strong>Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k kald\u0131<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beklentiyi a\u015fan veriler belirli bir trend olu\u015fturmad\u0131, tekil d\u00f6nemlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. En dikkat \u00e7ekeni \u015eubat 2025&#8217;te a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ocak verisiydi. Man\u015fet ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 0,3 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,5, \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon ise y\u00fczde 0,3 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,4 geldi. May\u0131s 2026&#8217;da a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan verisinde de y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet ve ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon beklentiyi 0,1 puan a\u015ft\u0131. En son Eyl\u00fcl 2026&#8217;da a\u00e7\u0131klanan A\u011fustos verisinde \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 0,2 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,3 geldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Kasim_2025_Son_iki_yilin_en_sert_sapmasi\"><\/span><strong>Kas\u0131m 2025: Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n en sert sapmas\u0131<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">H\u00fck\u00fcmet kapanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 gecikmeli a\u00e7\u0131klanan Kas\u0131m 2025 verisi, d\u00f6nemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrprizi oldu. Y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyon y\u00fczde 3,1 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,7&#8217;de kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise y\u00fczde 3,0 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,6 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Kapanma d\u00f6neminde eksik veri toplanmas\u0131, bu rakamlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine dair tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da beraberinde getirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2026_Enflasyon_yukseldi_tahminler_isabetli_kaldi\"><\/span><strong>2026: Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi, tahminler isabetli kald\u0131<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2026&#8217;da enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert art\u0131\u015fla man\u015fet enflasyon May\u0131s&#8217;ta y\u00fczde 4,2&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak piyasa bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda man\u015fet ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE&#8217;nin 6&#8217;s\u0131 tam beklentide geldi, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sapma hi\u00e7 ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Haziran verisinde man\u015fet ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde -0,1 tahmine kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde -0,4 ile beklentinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Yatirimci_acisindan_degerlendirme\"><\/span><strong>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, ABD enflasyon verilerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcye k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu e\u011filim, piyasa tahminlerinin \u00f6zellikle tarife ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 riskleri fiyatlarken temkinli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Yine de ge\u00e7mi\u015f istatistik tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir sonraki veriyi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fil. Beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE, dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131 itebilir ve kripto ile hisse piyasalar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratabilir. Beklenti alt\u0131 veriler ise risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 destekleme e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Siradaki_durak_Eylul_verisi\"><\/span><strong>S\u0131radaki durak: Eyl\u00fcl verisi<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eyl\u00fcl 2026 T\u00dcFE verisi 14 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 15:30&#8217;da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasa beklentisi man\u015fet ayl\u0131k enflasyon i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,6, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,6, \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,2. Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n tablosu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir sapmay\u0131 daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6sterse de son a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ekirdek verinin beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek seyreden akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"border-left:4px solid #3b82f6;padding:14px 16px;border-radius:6px;color:#cbd5e1;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.6\">\ud83d\udca1 <strong style=\"color:#93c5fd\">Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi fiyat\u0131 \u00e7ok dalgalanabilen kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131r; bu y\u00fczden enflasyonun daha kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Konsens\u00fcs ise piyasadaki uzmanlar\u0131n veri a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce olu\u015fan ortak beklentisidir.<\/p><p style=\"border-left:4px solid #eab308;padding:14px 16px;border-radius:6px;color:#cbd5e1;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.6\">\ud83d\udcca <strong style=\"color:#fde047\">Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE, Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar\u0131n destek bulmas\u0131na ve tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda hisse ve kripto piyasalar\u0131nda bask\u0131 artabilir; beklenti alt\u0131 bir veri ise faiz indirimi beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutup risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD&#8217;de son iki y\u0131lda a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri, piyasa tahminlerinin sistematik olarak yukar\u0131da kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ekim 2024&#8217;ten bu yana a\u00e7\u0131klanan 23<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[20,6450,110],"class_list":["post-30448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-abd","tag-onemli","tag-tufe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30448"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30638,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30448\/revisions\/30638"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/30450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}