ABD’de Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi hem man\u015fet hem de \u00e7ekirdek tarafta beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Yuvarlanm\u0131\u015f rakamlar ilk bak\u0131\u015fta tahminlere yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de ondal\u0131k detaylar, fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu ortaya koydu. Veri sonras\u0131 dolar endeksi y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed’in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yuvarlanmam\u0131\u015f rakamlar tabloyu de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n BLS verilerine g\u00f6re man\u015fet T\u00dcFE Eyl\u00fcl’de ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,649 artt\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi y\u00fczde 0,58 seviyesindeydi. Yuvarlanm\u0131\u015f haliyle y\u00fczde 0,6 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakam ilk bak\u0131\u015fta beklentiyle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de ger\u00e7ekte tahminin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As\u0131l s\u00fcrpriz, Fed’in yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondan geldi. G\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, y\u00fczde 0,21’lik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,335 y\u00fckseldi. Bu, \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyonun \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. A\u011fustos’ta da \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k veri y\u00fczde 0,2 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,3 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 3,7’ye t\u0131rmand\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyon A\u011fustos’taki y\u00fczde 3,4 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 3,738’e y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 2,446’dan y\u00fczde 2,564’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Akaryak\u0131t bask\u0131s\u0131 man\u015fet veride belirleyici<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Man\u015fet enflasyondaki sert art\u0131\u015f\u0131n arkas\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131 bulunuyor. ABD’de benzinin galon fiyat\u0131 Ekim ba\u015f\u0131nda 4,41 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in tarihi zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 40 y\u00fckseldi. A\u011fustos verisinde benzin endeksi ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,9, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 27,4 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak \u00e7ekirdek verinin de beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131, fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hizmet kalemlerine yay\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n nadir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlerinden biri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Eyl\u00fcl verisi, son iki y\u0131ll\u0131k e\u011filimle de keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Ekim 2024’ten bu yana a\u00e7\u0131klanan 23 T\u00dcFE raporunda \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k enflasyon yaln\u0131zca 4 kez beklentiyi a\u015fm\u0131\u015f, 11 kez beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl verisiyle birlikte bu say\u0131 5’e \u00e7\u0131karken, bunlar\u0131n ikisinin son iki ayda art arda gelmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Piyasan\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 “beklenti alt\u0131 enflasyon” tablosu, son verilerle birlikte tersine d\u00f6nme sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dolar y\u00fckseldi, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Verinin ard\u0131ndan Bloomberg Dolar Spot Endeksi Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD’de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri d\u00fc\u015ferken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed’in yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bahislerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Veri \u00f6ncesinde vadeli piyasalar, 27-28 Ekim’deki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fczde 17-20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Aral\u0131k’a kadar en az bir art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 85 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yordu. Fed politika faizi halen y\u00fczde 3,75-4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunuyor ve Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki projeksiyonlar y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131ma daha i\u015faret ediyordu. Fed Guvern\u00f6r\u00fc Christopher Waller da ge\u00e7en hafta kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun beklentilere yerle\u015febilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hanehalk\u0131 taraf\u0131nda da tablo i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi anketinde bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 4,7’ye, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti ise y\u00fczde 3,5’e y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fme, Fed’in enflasyon beklentilerinin \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131n\u0131 kaybetme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert bir duru\u015f sergilemesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirme<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Hem man\u015fet hem de \u00e7ekirdek tarafta beklentinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini masaya yeniden getirdi. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve y\u00fckselen faiz beklentileri, k\u0131sa vadede kripto para ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda ise enflasyondan korunma talebi ile reel faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f aras\u0131nda bir denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde bundan sonra bug\u00fcn TS\u0130 21:00’de yay\u0131mlanacak Fed Bej Kitap raporu, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00dcFE ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri bulunuyor. Ancak as\u0131l odak, 28 Ekim’deki Fed karar\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki ivmenin kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udca1 Bilgi Notu:<\/strong> \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi fiyat\u0131 \u00e7ok oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra kalan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesidir; bu y\u00fczden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in izlenir. FOMC ise Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p> \ud83d\udcca Piyasa Etkisi:<\/strong> Enflasyonun beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi ya da yeniden art\u0131rabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Bu da dolar\u0131 destekleyip tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir; hisse senetleri ve kripto varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD’de Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi hem man\u015fet hem de \u00e7ekirdek tarafta beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. Yuvarlanm\u0131\u015f rakamlar ilk bak\u0131\u015fta tahminlere yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnse<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","fxk_merge_backup":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[76,6450,110],"class_list":["post-31000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-enflasyon","tag-onemli","tag-tufe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31000"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31003,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31000\/revisions\/31003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/31001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}G\u00f6sterge<\/th> Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen<\/th> Beklenti<\/th> \u00d6nceki<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE \u2013 Ayl\u0131k<\/td> %0,649<\/td> %0,58<\/td> %0,40<\/td><\/tr> Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE \u2013 Y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/td> %3,738<\/td> %3,6<\/td> %3,40<\/td><\/tr> \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE \u2013 Ayl\u0131k<\/td> %0,335<\/td> %0,21<\/td> %0,29<\/td><\/tr> \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE \u2013 Y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/td> %2,564<\/td> %2,4<\/td> %2,446<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n