BIS (Filipinler Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131), piyasalar\u0131n sekt\u00f6re \u00f6zg\u00fc bir de\u011ferleme tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olarak ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konuya sistemik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 getiriyor. Hane halk\u0131 \u00f6z sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n hem servet hem de gelire g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 keskin bir d\u00fczeltmenin, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki teknoloji krizlerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde t\u00fcketime yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 ve Amerikan hisse senetlerinin k\u00fcresel piyasa kapitalizasyonundaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pay\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine uzanan yay\u0131lma etkilerine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Enflasyon boyutu, merkez bankas\u0131 ikilemini daha da karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: Yapay zek\u00e2 enerjisi ve \u00e7ip talebi, Ortado\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde enflasyonu hedef seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anda girdi maliyetlerini zaten bask\u0131l\u0131yor, ancak BIS belirsizli\u011fi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek politika yan\u0131t\u0131 olarak faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00f6nermedi. Emtia ve enerji piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in, in\u015faat darbo\u011faz\u0131 bulgular\u0131 do\u011frudan ilgili: Elektrik, geli\u015fmi\u015f yar\u0131 iletkenler ve \u015febeke ekipman\u0131 k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, uzun vadeli tedarik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle riskleri art\u0131rarak, yapay zek\u00e2 talebinin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 durumunda olumsuz etkileri b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Kredi piyasalar\u0131, veri merkezi in\u015faat\u0131 ve donan\u0131m tedarik zincirleri yoluyla ikincil bir bula\u015fma riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; burada kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bor\u00e7lular, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli veri merkezi harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bozulmadan kalmas\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BIS (Filipinler Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131), Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k yapay zeka yat\u0131r\u0131m patlamas\u0131n\u0131n, getirilerin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 durumunda ani bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ve durgunluk riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc 1840’lardaki dot-com krizi ve demiryolu \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na benzetti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6zet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f hiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli internet sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yapay zek\u00e2 ile ilgili sermaye harcamalar\u0131na 1 trilyon dolardan fazla para harcamas\u0131 bekleniyor. BIS ise pazar pay\u0131 yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunuyor.
BIS Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Pablo Hern\u00e1ndez de Cos, yapay zekan\u0131n beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 durumunda sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn savunmas\u0131z kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da yat\u0131r\u0131m patlamas\u0131n\u0131n aniden sona ermesine ve ekonomi genelinde durgunluk sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.
BIS, 1830’lardaki kanal in\u015faat\u0131yla, 1840’lardaki \u0130ngiliz demiryolu \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, 1920’lerin sonlar\u0131ndaki elektrifikasyonla ve 1990’lar\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndaki dot-com patlamas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a paralellikler kurdu; bunlar\u0131n hepsi yat\u0131r\u0131m gerilemeleri ve durgunluklarla sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 de\u011ferlemelerinin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n rehavetini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, BIS, hane halk\u0131n\u0131n gelir ve toplam servete oranla hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fczeltmenin ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki d\u00fczeltmelere k\u0131yasla daha ciddi servet etkilerine ve t\u00fcketimde gerilemelere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.
Yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n elektrik, geli\u015fmi\u015f yar\u0131 iletkenler ve \u015febeke ekipmanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik doymak bilmez talebi, potansiyel enflasyon etkileriyle birlikte girdi maliyetlerini \u015fimdiden zorlarken, uzun vadeli tedarik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri de tedarik zinciri genelinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.
Uyar\u0131lara ra\u011fmen, BIS merkez bankalar\u0131na ekonomik patlamay\u0131 so\u011futmak i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131; Hern\u00e1ndez, s\u00f6z konusu belirsizlik d\u00fczeyi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, politika tepkisi konusunda yol g\u00f6sterici tavsiyelerde bulunman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.
Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131 hakk\u0131nda y\u0131llard\u0131r yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 en sert uyar\u0131lardan birini yay\u0131nlad\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji firmalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki harcama yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, yapay zek\u00e2 k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalarda ve sermaye tahsis kararlar\u0131nda yerle\u015fmi\u015f beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131 durumunda ekonomileri durgunlu\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilecek ani bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fle sonu\u00e7lanma riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wall Street Journal’\u0131n (eri\u015fim k\u0131s\u0131tlamal\u0131 ) Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan BIS y\u0131ll\u0131k raporuna ili\u015fkin haberine g\u00f6re, en b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f hiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firket, 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yapay zek\u00e2 ile ilgili sermaye harcamalar\u0131na toplamda 1 trilyon dolardan fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in koordinasyon kurumu g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren \u0130svi\u00e7re merkezli kurulu\u015f, pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alma konusundaki rekabet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i getirilerle hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilecek seviyelerin \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BIS genel m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Pablo Hern\u00e1ndez de Cos, riski do\u011frudan \u015fu \u015fekilde ifade etti: Yapay zek\u00e2, verimlilik vaatlerini yerine getiremezse, geli\u015fimini destekleyen finansman aniden geri \u00e7ekilebilir ve bu da \u00f6nceki teknoloji yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi h\u0131z ve \u015fiddetle patlamay\u0131 sona erdirebilir. BIS’in ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu tarihsel kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar pek i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. 1830’lardaki kanal in\u015faat\u0131, 1840’lardaki \u0130ngiliz demiryolu geni\u015flemesi, 1920’lerin sonlar\u0131ndaki elektrifikasyon ve 1990’lar\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndaki dot-com patlamas\u0131, temelde ayn\u0131 yap\u0131y\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131yordu: D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc bir teknolojiye h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarlarda para yat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan ekonomi genelinde durgunluklara yol a\u00e7an bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BIS, yapay zekan\u0131n uzun vadeli potansiyelini \u00f6ncekilerden ay\u0131rmaya \u00f6zen g\u00f6sterdi. Yapay zeka sistemleri sonunda kendi yeteneklerini geli\u015ftirebilecek ve otonom olarak yeni fikirler ve teknolojiler \u00fcretebilecek hale gelirse, makroekonomik sonu\u00e7lar ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki yeniliklerden son derece farkl\u0131 olabilir ve insanlar\u0131n yeni bilgi \u00fcretme h\u0131z\u0131yla dayat\u0131lan uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki temel k\u0131s\u0131tlamay\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rabilir. Ancak bu olumlu sonu\u00e7, BIS’in mevcut rehavete yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentinin ta kendisidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 de\u011ferlemeleri \u00f6zellikle endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak belirlendi. BIS, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, s\u00f6z konusu belirsizlikler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hakl\u0131 olmayan bir risk alma rahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fczeltmenin, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki olaylardan daha ciddi ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bunun nedeni yap\u0131sal: Hane halk\u0131n\u0131n hisse senedine olan maruziyeti, son on y\u0131llarda hem toplam servet hem de gelire g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131; bu da fiyatlarda keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, tarihsel \u00f6rneklerin g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden daha belirgin servet etkileri ve t\u00fcketimde daha keskin bir geri \u00e7ekilme yarataca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. ABD hisse senetlerinin k\u00fcresel piyasa kapitalizasyonundaki orant\u0131s\u0131z pay\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fck yapay zeka oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun Amerikal\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu bula\u015fman\u0131n ABD ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Enflasyon ve kredi boyutlar\u0131 da karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yapay zekan\u0131n elektrik, geli\u015fmi\u015f yar\u0131 iletkenler ve \u015febeke ekipman\u0131na olan talebi, Ortado\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 hedeflerinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, daha geni\u015f enflasyona yay\u0131lma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan girdi maliyeti bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu arada, i\u00e7 kaynaklardan finanse edilen yat\u0131r\u0131mdan bor\u00e7 finansman\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f, finansal istikrar riskini de beraberinde getirdi: Hiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli veri merkezi sermaye harcamalar\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama veya durma, veri merkezi in\u015faat\u0131 ve donan\u0131m tedarik zinciri genelindeki kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bor\u00e7lular\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyememesine veya kaybedilen geliri telafi edememesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Uyar\u0131lar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, BIS, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik patlamay\u0131 so\u011futmak i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a bir tavsiyede bulunmay\u0131 reddetti; Hern\u00e1ndez, belirsizli\u011fin boyutu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uygun para politikas\u0131 tepkisi konusunda yol g\u00f6sterici olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, piyasalar\u0131 ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, BIS’in a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak do\u011frudan bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir riski izleme gibi rahats\u0131z edici bir duruma sokuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BIS (Filipinler Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131), piyasalar\u0131n sekt\u00f6re \u00f6zg\u00fc bir de\u011ferleme tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olarak ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konuya sistemik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 getiriyor. Hane<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,1],"tags":[149],"class_list":["post-3612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-yapay-zeka"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3612"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3614,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3612\/revisions\/3614"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}