{"id":5081,"date":"2026-07-11T16:33:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T13:33:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=5081"},"modified":"2026-07-11T18:27:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T15:27:28","slug":"14-18-temmuz-2026-haftalik-risk-takvimi-raporu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=5081","title":{"rendered":"13\u201317 TEMMUZ 2026 – HAFTALIK R\u0130SK TAKV\u0130M\u0130 RAPORU"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu hafta Warsh d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in tan\u0131mlay\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc CPI’da Haziran enflasyonu ilk kez 4.2% zirvesinden \u00e7ekilip \u00e7ekilmedi\u011fini g\u00f6recek piyasa, ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Warsh’\u0131n Kongre ifadesiyle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze gelecek \u2014 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc PPI’da da ayn\u0131 \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fma tekrarl\u0131yor. Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 arka arkaya iki g\u00fcn hem Temsilciler Meclisi hem de Senato’nun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7iyor; b\u00fct\u00e7e ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, dot plot karar\u0131 ve hike patikas\u0131 sorgulanacak. \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan benzin fiyatlar\u0131 Haziran’da yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 geriledi; bu da Haziran CPI i\u00e7in ilk kez anlaml\u0131 bir enerji deflasyonu sinyali anlam\u0131na geliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz’\u00fcn fiil\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu hafta tamamlan\u0131yor olabilir \u2014 enerji taraf\u0131ndaki her haber verinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu an\u0131nda eskitme kapasitesinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc5 Ekonomik takvim (TS\u0130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sal\u0131 \u2013 14 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 T\u00dcFE (CPI) Haziran 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

May\u0131s’ta y\u00fczde 4,2 olan man\u015fet enflasyon i\u00e7in Haziran konsens\u00fcs\u00fc y\u00fczde 3,8 civar\u0131nda; Cleveland Fed nowcast y\u00fczde 3,96 g\u00f6steriyor. Her iki tahmin de May\u0131s zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor \u2014 s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10’luk gerilemesi. As\u0131l izlenecek bile\u015fen enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: May\u0131s’ta y\u00fczde 2,9 olan \u00e7ekirdek CPI yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor mu? Hizmetler taraf\u0131ndaki kat\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyorsa “enerji ucuzlad\u0131 ama enflasyon gitmedi” okumas\u0131 Warsh’\u0131n elini ba\u011flamaya devam eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 17:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 Warsh Kongre \u0130fadesi I \u2014 Temsilciler Meclisi Finansal Hizmetler Komitesi (10:00 AM ET)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsh’\u0131n Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak ilk kongre ifadesi. CPI ile ayn\u0131 g\u00fcne denk geliyor; enflasyon verisinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 atmosferde do\u011frudan sorgulanacak. Piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi sorular: Dot plotu neden korudu, ne zaman kald\u0131racak? Tarife belirsizli\u011fi ve \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 Fed’in patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi mi? Y\u00fczde 3,5 politika faizini ne kadar s\u00fcre sabit tutmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor? Kongre bask\u0131s\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki duru\u015fu Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan \u015fekillendirecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba \u2013 15 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 \u00dcFE (PPI) Haziran 2026<\/strong> BLS <\/p>\n\n\n\n

May\u0131s’ta y\u00fczde 6,5 YoY ile Kas\u0131m 2022’den bu yana en y\u00fcksek okumay\u0131 veren \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131, enerji girdilerinin y\u00fczde 10,7 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla \u015fekilleniyordu. Haziran i\u00e7in Continuum Economics ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fcz seyir bekliyor; enerji bile\u015feninde y\u00fczde 7 gerileme tahmin ediliyor. CPI’y\u0131 takip eden g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan PPI iki okuman\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde mi ayr\u0131\u015fan y\u00f6nde mi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecek \u2014 boru hatt\u0131 enflasyonu h\u00e2l\u00e2 doluysa Temmuz ve A\u011fustos verilerine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler yeniden \u015fekillenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 16:45 TS\u0130 \u2014 BoC Faiz Karar\u0131 + Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (MPR)<\/strong> 17:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Ba\u015fkan Macklem Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu, y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez yap\u0131lan MPR toplant\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri \u2014 g\u00fcncel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131 da e\u015f zamanl\u0131 yay\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Faizin y\u00fczde 2,25’te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor (piyasa hike olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 9 fiyatl\u0131yor). As\u0131l mesele Macklem’in enerji fiyat\u0131 gerilemesini MPR’a nas\u0131l yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilemi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirme dilinin de\u011fi\u015fip de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Kanada enerji ihracat\u0131 ve CAD \u00fczerindeki etkisi de bu toplant\u0131da ilk kez resm\u00ee de\u011ferlendirmeye konu olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 17:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 Warsh Kongre \u0130fadesi II \u2014 Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi (10:00 AM ET)<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Temsilciler Meclisi’nden genellikle daha teknik ve derinlemesine sorgu y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcr. Warsh sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnden farkl\u0131 bir ton mu benimseyecek \u2014 \u00f6zellikle CPI ve PPI verileri ikisi aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015fse piyasan\u0131n yeni bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve kurma f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per\u015fembe \u2013 16 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (Advance), Haziran 2026<\/strong> \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,9 MoM ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmi\u015f; ancak kontrol grubu (motorlu ara\u00e7lar, benzin, in\u015faat malzemeleri hari\u00e7) daha anlaml\u0131 okuma veriyor. 57K’l\u0131k zay\u0131f Haziran NFP sonras\u0131nda t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131n\u0131n seyri kritik \u2014 istihdam k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ysa harcamalar da gerileyecek mi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuma \u2013 17 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 17:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni \u00d6nde\u011ferlendirme, Temmuz 2026<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Haziran okuma 49,5 ile May\u0131s’\u0131n 44,8’inden toparlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Temmuz i\u00e7in FactSet konsens\u00fcs\u00fc 51,5. Ucuzlayan benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131yla haftaya gelen iyimserlik ile Haziran NFP’sinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015f g\u00fcvencesi kayg\u0131s\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi Haziran’da h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 4,6 gibi y\u00fcksek seyrediyor \u2014 bu rakam\u0131n gerilemeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 Fed ve piyasa i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcredir beklenen bir sinyal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u26a1 Kripto & Piyasa Riskleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CPI + Warsh ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn (Sal\u0131):<\/strong> So\u011fuyan CPI + g\u00fcvercin Warsh tonu \u2192 Haziran’dan bu yana biriken hike beklentisi agresif bi\u00e7imde geri al\u0131n\u0131r, risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 sert toparlar. So\u011fuyan CPI + \u015fahin Warsh \u2192 karma sinyal, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k. S\u0131cak \u00e7ekirdek CPI + \u015fahin Warsh \u2192 dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, hike prim artar, kripto bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 senaryonun her biri farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde fiyatlamayla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r; ilk 15 dakika i\u00e7in ekran ba\u015f\u0131nda olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PPI + Warsh 2 + BoC ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn (\u00c7ar\u015famba):<\/strong> \u00dc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131klama ayn\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba’ya s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. PPI’n\u0131n beklenti \u00fczerinde gelmesi Sal\u0131’n\u0131n verdi\u011fi rahatlama sinyalini tersine \u00e7evirebilir. BoC’nin MPR’dan g\u00fcvercin revizyonlarla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 CAD’i zay\u0131flat\u0131r, DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenir \u2014 kripto i\u00e7in ek bask\u0131 katman\u0131. Warsh’\u0131n Senato ifadesinde Sal\u0131’dan farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ise tek ba\u015f\u0131na volatilite yaratmaya yeterli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (Per\u015fembe 15:30):<\/strong> Zay\u0131f NFP ard\u0131ndan t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015ferse “b\u00fcy\u00fcme k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor” anlat\u0131s\u0131 peki\u015fir; k\u0131sa vadede Fed’in hike yapamayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi kripto i\u00e7in paradoksal bir destek sa\u011flayabilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc okuma ise “ekonomi ayakta, Warsh rahat hareket edebilir” okumas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz fiil\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/strong> Anla\u015fma 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcreyi bu hafta tamaml\u0131yor. Bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair somut teyit gelirse enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ani hareket yapar, CPI patikas\u0131 yeniden fiyatlan\u0131r ve bu haftan\u0131n veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc alt \u00fcst edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131 Bu hafta Warsh d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in tan\u0131mlay\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc CPI’da Haziran enflasyonu ilk kez 4.2% zirvesinden<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[253],"class_list":["post-5081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-raporlar","tag-risk-takvimi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5081"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5081\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5114,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5081\/revisions\/5114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}