{"id":6320,"date":"2026-07-25T14:00:49","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T11:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320"},"modified":"2026-07-25T14:00:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T11:00:50","slug":"fed-karari-oncesi-gozler-faizde-degil-verilecek-mesajlarda-eylul-icin-faiz-artirimi-beklentisi-%82yi-asti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320","title":{"rendered":"FED Karar\u0131 \u00d6ncesi G\u00f6zler Faizde De\u011fil, Verilecek Mesajlarda: Eyl\u00fcl \u0130\u00e7in Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Beklentisi %82&#8217;yi A\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), 28-29 Temmuz tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini mevcut <strong>%3,50-%3,75<\/strong> aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ekonomistlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu ve vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 bu toplant\u0131da herhangi bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ancak piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l \u00f6nemli konu faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden \u00e7ok, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 <strong>Kevin Warsh<\/strong> ve FOMC \u00fcyelerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara ili\u015fkin verece\u011fi mesajlar olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6zellikle CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re <strong>16 Eyl\u00fcl 2026<\/strong> toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k <strong>%82,2&#8217;ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131<\/strong>, bu haftaki toplant\u0131n\u0131n ileti\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_86 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-transparent ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor:pointer\">\u0130\u00e7indekiler<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Bu_Hafta_Piyasalar_En_Cok_Nelere_Bakacak\" >Bu Hafta Piyasalar En \u00c7ok Nelere Bakacak?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#1_Kevin_Warshin_Basin_Toplantisi\" >1. Kevin Warsh&#8217;\u0131n Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#2_FOMC_Karar_Metni\" >2. FOMC Karar Metni<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#3_Faiz_Projeksiyonlari_Dot_Plot\" >3. Faiz Projeksiyonlar\u0131 (Dot Plot)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#4_Enflasyon_ve_Enerji_Fiyatlari\" >4. Enflasyon ve Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Eylul_Toplantisi_Icin_Faiz_Artirimi_Beklentisi_Guclu\" >Eyl\u00fcl Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Beklentisi G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Karar_Sonrasinda_Hangi_Senaryolar_One_Cikabilir\" >Karar Sonras\u0131nda Hangi Senaryolar \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kabilir?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Sahin_Mesajlar_Gelirse\" >\u015eahin Mesajlar Gelirse<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Guvercin_Mesajlar_Gelirse\" >G\u00fcvercin Mesajlar Gelirse<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6320\/#Sonuc\" >Sonu\u00e7<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bu_Hafta_Piyasalar_En_Cok_Nelere_Bakacak\"><\/span>Bu Hafta Piyasalar En \u00c7ok Nelere Bakacak?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Kevin_Warshin_Basin_Toplantisi\"><\/span>1. Kevin Warsh&#8217;\u0131n Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh g\u00f6reve geldi\u011finden beri selefi Jerome Powell&#8217;a k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirme yapan bir ileti\u015fim stratejisi benimsedi. Piyasalara gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin net sinyaller vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131, her a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 daha da \u00f6nemli hale getiriyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u015fu ba\u015fl\u0131klara odaklanmas\u0131 bekleniyor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Enflasyon konusunda Fed&#8217;in de\u011ferlendirmesi de\u011fi\u015fti mi?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f kal\u0131c\u0131 bir risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor mu?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tarifelerin enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisi nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendiriliyor?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131flama sinyalleri yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor mu?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in kap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131lacak m\u0131?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh&#8217;\u0131n bu konularda kullanaca\u011f\u0131 ton, faiz karar\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_FOMC_Karar_Metni\"><\/span>2. FOMC Karar Metni<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bazen yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 kelimelik de\u011fi\u015fiklik bile piyasalar\u0131n beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6zellikle \u015fu ifadelerde yap\u0131labilecek de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yak\u0131ndan izlenecek:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation remains elevated<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labor market conditions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risks to the outlook<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price stability<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan tutanaklarda Fed, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f ve fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yinelemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Faiz_Projeksiyonlari_Dot_Plot\"><\/span>3. Faiz Projeksiyonlar\u0131 (Dot Plot)<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Her ne kadar Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yeni ekonomik projeksiyon (SEP) yay\u0131mlanmasa da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 Fed \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda arayacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Haziran ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan projeksiyonlarda \u00fcyeler aras\u0131nda faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 desteklerken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 mevcut seviyelerin yeterli oldu\u011funu savunmu\u015ftu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu nedenle Warsh&#8217;\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin verece\u011fi en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sinyal bile beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Enflasyon_ve_Enerji_Fiyatlari\"><\/span>4. Enflasyon ve Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Son haftalarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015f, Fed&#8217;in enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesine neden olabilecek en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelerden biri olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enerji maliyetlerinin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi durumunda bunun t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131, Fed&#8217;in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na veya ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitmesine neden olabilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Eylul_Toplantisi_Icin_Faiz_Artirimi_Beklentisi_Guclu\"><\/span>Eyl\u00fcl Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Beklentisi G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131nda olu\u015fan fiyatlamalar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mevcut olas\u0131l\u0131klara g\u00f6re:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Faizin <strong>%3,50-%3,75<\/strong> aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma ihtimali: <strong>%17,8<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Faizin <strong>%3,75-%4,00<\/strong> aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselme ihtimali: <strong>%57,3<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Faizin <strong>%4,00-%4,25<\/strong> aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselme ihtimali: <strong>%25,0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">B\u00f6ylece piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131, <strong>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini toplamda %82,2 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu beklentinin temelinde;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>enflasyonun hedef seviyenin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>hizmet enflasyonundaki diren\u00e7,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed \u00fcyelerinin \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Karar_Sonrasinda_Hangi_Senaryolar_One_Cikabilir\"><\/span>Karar Sonras\u0131nda Hangi Senaryolar \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kabilir?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sahin_Mesajlar_Gelirse\"><\/span>\u015eahin Mesajlar Gelirse<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh&#8217;\u0131n enflasyon risklerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc vurgu yapmas\u0131 ve Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131 halinde;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ABD tahvil faizlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dolar Endeksi&#8217;nde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda bask\u0131,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bitcoin ve di\u011fer kripto varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda zay\u0131flama<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6zellikle piyasalar\u0131n zaten y\u00fcksek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u015fahin mesajlar bu beklentiyi daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Guvercin_Mesajlar_Gelirse\"><\/span>G\u00fcvercin Mesajlar Gelirse<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed&#8217;in enflasyondaki ilerlemeyi \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 ve Eyl\u00fcl konusunda net y\u00f6nlendirme yapmamas\u0131 durumunda ise;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>tahvil faizlerinde geri \u00e7ekilme,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>alt\u0131n ve riskli varl\u0131klarda y\u00fckseli\u015f,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bitcoin ve altcoinlerde al\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">beklenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sonuc\"><\/span>Sonu\u00e7<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n temel beklentisi politika faizinin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak toplant\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek etkisi, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh&#8217;\u0131n verece\u011fi mesajlar ve Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 beklentiler taraf\u0131ndan belirlenecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Piyasalar\u0131n <strong>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %82,2 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131<\/strong>, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed&#8217;in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelesinin hen\u00fcz sona ermedi\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle faiz karar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, karar metni ve Warsh&#8217;\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verece\u011fi sinyaller; dolar, tahvil piyasas\u0131, alt\u0131n, hisse senetleri ve kripto varl\u0131klar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), 28-29 Temmuz tarihlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini mevcut %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6325,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[27,26,55],"class_list":["post-6320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finansal-piyasalar","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-warsh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6322,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6320\/revisions\/6322"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}