{"id":6326,"date":"2026-07-25T14:29:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T11:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6326"},"modified":"2026-07-25T14:29:01","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T11:29:01","slug":"27-31-temmuz-2026-haftalik-risk-takvimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=6326","title":{"rendered":"27 &#8211; 31 TEMMUZ 2026 | HAFTALIK R\u0130SK TAKV\u0130M\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>27 &#8211; 31 Temmuz 2026 | Haftal\u0131k Risk Takvimi (TS\u0130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu hafta y\u0131l\u0131n en yo\u011fun veri-karar \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe&#8217;den bu yana tablo k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015fti: Husi militanlar Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc iki Suudi tankerine sald\u0131rarak Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131&#8217;n\u0131 fiilen kapatt\u0131 \u2014 \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz&#8217;\u00fcn kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde Suudi Arabistan&#8217;\u0131n tek alternatif ihracat g\u00fczergah\u0131 buydu. WTI petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Temmuz boyunca yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Haziran CPI&#8217;n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji-dezenflasyon anlat\u0131s\u0131 tek bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu geli\u015fmenin FOMC&#8217;a yans\u0131mas\u0131 do\u011frudan: Temmuz art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10,7&#8217;den bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 38&#8217;e f\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu h\u00e2l\u00e2 &#8220;hold&#8221; bekliyor \u2014 ancak hi\u00e7 kimse Warsh&#8217;\u0131n ne yapaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin de\u011fil. Fed&#8217;in ileriye y\u00f6nlendirmeyi bilerek azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde bu belirsizlik volatilite primini ikiye katlar. \u00dcstelik Q2 GSY\u0130H \u00f6n tahminini ve Haziran PCE&#8217;yi i\u00e7eren dev veri paketi FOMC&#8217;dan tam bir g\u00fcn sonra a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor; BoJ ise Cuma sabah\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ekonomik projeksiyon raporuyla sahneye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcc5 <strong>Ekonomik takvim <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c7ar\u015famba \u2013 29 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <strong>21:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 FOMC Faiz Karar\u0131<\/strong> <strong>21:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faiz mevcut 3,50\u20133,75 band\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak y\u00fczde 38 olas\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmeyi imkans\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu Warsh&#8217;\u0131n ikinci FOMC&#8217;u \u2014 ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 12-0 ile reddetmi\u015fti. O toplant\u0131dan bu yana enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 artm\u0131\u015f, Bab el-Mandeb kapanm\u0131\u015f, September hike olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 80&#8217;e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 noktada:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2192 <strong>Faiz karar\u0131:<\/strong> Hold mu, s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f m\u0131? \u2192 <strong>Warsh&#8217;\u0131n dili:<\/strong> &#8220;Enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek&#8221; \u015fahin tonu mu, &#8220;veri bekliyoruz&#8221; temkinli duru\u015fu mu? \u2192 <strong>Eyl\u00fcl sinyali:<\/strong> Warsh ileriye y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nan bir ba\u015fkan \u2014 tek bir c\u00fcmle piyasay\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareket ettirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Per\u015fembe \u2013 30 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <strong>15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Q2 2026 GSY\u0130H \u00d6n Tahmini (Advance Estimate)<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Q1&#8217;de y\u00fczde 2,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ABD ekonomisinin ikinci \u00e7eyrek performans\u0131 burada ilk kez ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Enerji \u015fokunun t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131ma etkisi, Haziran FOMC karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan GSY\u0130H&#8217;\u0131n ne y\u00f6nde okunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <strong>15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 PCE Deflator ve Ki\u015fisel Gelir\/Harcama, Haziran 2026<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FOMC&#8217;un kendi hedef metri\u011fi \u2014 ve Fed karar\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca bir g\u00fcn sonra a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Haziran CPI y\u00fczde 3,5 ile belirgin so\u011fuma g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; PCE&#8217;nin \u00e7ekirdek bile\u015feninde ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde bir okuma Warsh&#8217;\u0131n &#8220;bekle-g\u00f6r&#8221; mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Haziran CPI ile \u00e7eli\u015fen s\u0131cak bir \u00e7ekirdek PCE ise Temmuz karar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <strong>15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi (ECI), Q2 2026<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BLS \u00e7eyreklik verisi: Her y\u0131l\u0131n son Per\u015fembesinde a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r, Temmuz = Q2. Fed&#8217;in \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 ikinci tur enflasyonu izlemek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 en do\u011frudan g\u00f6sterge. Q1&#8217;de y\u00fczde 0,9 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ECI, Q2&#8217;de hizmetler enflasyonunun yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin kritik ipucu verecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 <strong>15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00f6rt veri e\u015f zamanl\u0131 geliyor. GSY\u0130H + PCE + ECI + Ba\u015fvurular ayn\u0131 anda a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sinyal kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski maksimuma \u00e7\u0131kar; ilk 15 dakikadaki spread geni\u015flemesi ve likidite bo\u015fluklar\u0131 bu haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek fitil riskini ta\u015f\u0131yan an\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Cuma \u2013 31 Temmuz<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 <strong>~05:00\u201306:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 BoJ Faiz Karar\u0131 + Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu (Outlook Report)<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu, BoJ&#8217;un y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eyreklik projeksiyon toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u2014 Temmuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl beklentilerini do\u011frudan \u015fekillendirecek. Piyasa y\u00fczde 96 olas\u0131l\u0131kla &#8220;de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok&#8221; fiyatl\u0131yor (faiz y\u00fczde 1,0 sabit); Haziran&#8217;daki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ueda&#8217;n\u0131n normalle\u015fme patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylem Nikkei, JPY ve k\u00fcresel carry trade i\u00e7in belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>~09:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda Bas\u0131n Toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a1 <strong>Kripto &amp; Piyasa Riskleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FOMC (\u00c7ar\u015famba 21:00):<\/strong> S\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f \u2192 anl\u0131k risk-off; dolar sert g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, kripto kald\u0131ra\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve stop kas\u0131rgas\u0131. Hold + \u015fahin dil (Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc) \u2192 dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, kripto a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131. Hold + belirsiz Warsh \u2192 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k, iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc ani hareket; forward guidance yoklu\u011fu piyasay\u0131 kendi yorumunun insaf\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Per\u015fembe 15:30 mega paketi:<\/strong> D\u00f6rt verinin ayn\u0131 anda a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 sinyal \u00fcretim kapasitesini zorlar. GSY\u0130H g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc + PCE so\u011fuk \u2192 &#8220;b\u00fcy\u00fcme var, enflasyon geriliyor&#8221; \u2192 FOMC hold&#8217;u destekler, risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 rahatlayabilir. GSY\u0130H zay\u0131f + PCE s\u0131cak \u2192 stagflasyonun veri taraf\u0131ndan teyidi \u2192 t\u00fcm risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in en zorlu senaryo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>BoJ (Cuma sabah\u0131):<\/strong> Outlook raporunda b\u00fcy\u00fcme revizyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 + Ueda g\u00fcvercin dil \u2192 JPY zay\u0131flar, carry trade fonlanmaya devam eder, global likidite g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc desteklenir. S\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f ya da \u015fahin projeksiyon \u2192 Haziran ay\u0131ndaki BoJ s\u00fcrprizi gibi ani carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi \u2014 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Cuma likiditesinde BTC ve ETH&#8217;de sert fitil riski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Enerji arka plan\u0131:<\/strong> Bab el-Mandeb&#8217;in kapanmas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz&#8217;\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sembolik hale getirdi; iki b\u00fcy\u00fck bo\u011faz ayn\u0131 anda kapal\u0131 veya riskli. Bu hafta herhangi bir jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma veya \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm haberi petrol\u00fc ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kripto piyasas\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131k olarak yeniden fiyatlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>27 &#8211; 31 Temmuz 2026 | Haftal\u0131k Risk Takvimi (TS\u0130) \ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131 Bu hafta y\u0131l\u0131n en yo\u011fun veri-karar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[247],"class_list":["post-6326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-raporlar","tag-rapor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6326"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6326\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6327,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6326\/revisions\/6327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}