{"id":7223,"date":"2026-08-02T07:50:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-02T04:50:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=7223"},"modified":"2026-08-03T22:00:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T19:00:48","slug":"3-7-agustos-2026-haftalik-risk-takvimi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/?p=7223","title":{"rendered":"03 – 07 A\u011eUSTOS 2026 | HAFTALIK R\u0130SK TAKV\u0130M\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

03 – 07 A\u011fustos 2026 | Haftal\u0131k Risk Takvimi (TS\u0130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 korosu ayn\u0131 mesaj\u0131 veriyor: FOMC 3 muhalefet oyu (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan \u2014 hepsi 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f istedi), BoE 3 muhalefet oyu (Greene, Mann, Pill \u2014 hepsi 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f istedi), BoJ 1 muhalefet oyu (Takata \u2014 1,25’e art\u0131\u015f istedi). \u00dc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131nda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 \u015fahin bask\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl 2026’ya dair fiyatlamay\u0131 k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirdi: CME FedWatch’ta Eyl\u00fcl hold olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 41,9’a geriledi. Q2 GSY\u0130H y\u00fczde 1,5 ile beklentinin alt\u0131nda geldi ama t\u00fcketici harcamas\u0131 \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3,2 ivmelendi; Haziran PCE ayl\u0131k bazda geriledi (man\u015fet y\u00fczde 3,7, \u00e7ekirdek y\u00fczde 3,3). Tablo: B\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor, enflasyon yap\u0131\u015fkan kal\u0131yor, enerji \u015foku (petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde, Bab el-Mandeb kapal\u0131) bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu hafta t\u00fcm bu denklemi \u00e7\u00f6zecek tek de\u011fi\u015fken var \u2014 Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Temmuz NFP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc5 Ekonomik takvim (yaln\u0131z TS\u0130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tarih ve saatler resm\u00ee kaynaklardan (ISM, BLS, Fed, BoE) do\u011frudan teyit edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pazartesi \u2013 3 A\u011fustos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 17:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 ISM \u0130malat PMI, Temmuz 2026<\/strong>
Temmuz’un ilk i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc, ay\u0131n ilk verisi. Haziran’da 53,3 ile iki ay \u00fcst \u00fcste geri \u00e7ekilen endeks i\u00e7in Temmuz beklentileri n\u00f6tr; ancak Bab el-Mandeb kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n tedarik zincirine ilk yans\u0131mas\u0131 burada g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Fiyatlar alt endeksi \u2014 Haziran’da 71,3 ile \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek \u2014 A\u011fustos CPI patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyal vermesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan man\u015fetten daha \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba \u2013 5 A\u011fustos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:15 TS\u0130 \u2014 ADP \u0130stihdam Raporu, Temmuz 2026<\/strong>
NFP’den iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce gelen \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6stergesi. Haziran NFP’sinin 57 bin ile \u015foke etti\u011fi bir ortamda ADP’nin Temmuz i\u00e7in verece\u011fi say\u0131 piyasay\u0131 NFP \u00f6ncesinde kendi sesiyle konu\u015fturur. 100 binin \u00fczeri: “Haziran anomaliydi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 sa\u011flam” \u2014 Eyl\u00fcl hike bask\u0131s\u0131 artar. 100 binin alt\u0131: Zay\u0131fl\u0131k trendin par\u00e7as\u0131 olabilir \u2014 b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 17:00 TS\u0130 \u2014 ISM Hizmetler PMI + JOLTS, Temmuz 2026<\/strong>
\u0130kisi ayn\u0131 anda. ISM Services May\u0131s’ta 54,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrederken Haziran 53,3’e gerilemi\u015f; Temmuz’da hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc aktivitesinin y\u00f6n\u00fc ve fiyatlar alt endeksinin yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 JOLTS verisi ise a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f ilanlar\u0131n\u0131n azal\u0131p azalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek \u2014 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebindeki so\u011fuma Fed’in hamlesini geciktirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per\u015fembe \u2013 6 A\u011fustos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/strong>
NFP \u00f6ncesi son erken uyar\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi. Son d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n 197\u2013215 bin band\u0131, Haziran NFP’sinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131lmayla \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Ba\u015fvurular bu haftada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rsa piyasa “istihdam sa\u011flam, sadece say\u0131m fark\u0131 vard\u0131” yorumunu destekler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuma \u2013 7 A\u011fustos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 15:30 TS\u0130 \u2014 NFP (Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam), \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 ve Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7, Temmuz 2026<\/strong>
BLS resm\u00ee takviminden onayl\u0131. Haftan\u0131n \u2014 ve belki y\u0131l\u0131n bu \u00e7eyre\u011finin \u2014 en belirleyici verisi. Temmuz NFP, anket haftas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Bab el-Mandeb kapanmas\u0131ndan (24 Temmuz) \u00f6ncesini kaps\u0131yor; Temmuz FOMC’taki artan belirsizli\u011fin psikolojik etkisini i\u00e7erebilir. Haziran NFP’sinin 57 bin ile ne kadar ayk\u0131r\u0131 oldu\u011funu ya da bir trendin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret edip etmedi\u011fini Temmuz verisi netle\u015ftirecek. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 gelen \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rakam\u0131 enflasyon taraf\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131ca belirleyecek \u2014 \u00f6zellikle y\u00fczde 58 Eyl\u00fcl hike fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u26a1 Kripto & Piyasa Riskleri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ISM \u0130malat (Pazartesi 17:00):<\/strong> Fiyatlar endeksi 70 \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederse “enflasyon boru hatt\u0131 dolu” anlat\u0131s\u0131 hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren \u015fahin ton kurar. Daralmaya yakla\u015fan bir man\u015fet (50 alt\u0131) ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon \u00e7eli\u015fkisini derinle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ADP + ISM Services + JOLTS (\u00c7ar\u015famba):<\/strong> \u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7ar\u015famba NFP beklentilerini \u015fekillendirir. ADP g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc + ISM Services g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u2192 Eyl\u00fcl hike neredeyse kesinle\u015fir, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, kripto bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u0130kisi zay\u0131f \u2192 “b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekten k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor” okumas\u0131, ilk tepki risk-off ama ard\u0131ndan “Fed art\u0131ramaz” rallisi gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFP (Cuma 15:30):<\/strong> Eyl\u00fcl hike beklentisi y\u00fczde 58’de. 150 bin \u00fczeri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc NFP + y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u2192 Eyl\u00fcl hike neredeyse kesinle\u015fir; dolar sert g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, Hazine getirileri t\u0131rman\u0131r, kripto kald\u0131ra\u00e7 bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131na girer. 100 binin alt\u0131 zay\u0131f NFP \u2192 b\u00fcy\u00fcme korku a\u011f\u0131r basar, Eyl\u00fcl hike geri \u00e7ekilir; paradoksal olarak dolar zay\u0131flar ve kripto k\u0131sa vadeli rahatlar. Haziran gibi beklenmedik derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (57 bin alt\u0131) ise hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme hem de stagflasyon panikini birlikte tetikler \u2014 tarihsel olarak en y\u00fcksek kripto volatilite ortam\u0131 bu senaryo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jackson Hole \u00f6ncesi pozisyon:<\/strong> Warsh 27-29 A\u011fustos’ta konu\u015facak. Bu haftaki NFP, Warsh’\u0131n Jackson Hole’da ne s\u00f6yleyece\u011fine dair piyasa spek\u00fclasyonunu do\u011frudan \u015fekillendirir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri = Jackson Hole’da \u015fahin beklenti = hafta sonu a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

03 – 07 A\u011fustos 2026 | Haftal\u0131k Risk Takvimi (TS\u0130) \ud83c\udfaf Haftan\u0131n ana temas\u0131 Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 korosu ayn\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[247],"class_list":["post-7223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-raporlar","tag-rapor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7223"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7399,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7223\/revisions\/7399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fxknews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}